***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 30.2 31.0 30.7 1.0 64.0 60.2 28.6 29.7 31.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 30.1 30.4 30.5 0.9 59.9 57.8 28.0 29.7 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 30.0 30.7 31.1 1.1 66.0 60.7 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 24.3 24.4 29.7 2.0 73.7 69.6 21.1 23.2 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 31.9 31.5 29.5 1.4 67.4 63.8 28.2 30.3 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 30.4 30.0 26.9 1.4 68.8 65.6 27.4 29.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.8 30.0 30.4 0.8 59.9 58.0 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 18.6 18.8 27.6 1.0 61.1 59.5 16.4 18.3 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 30.9 30.7 29.7 1.5 68.5 63.9 27.7 29.4 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 29.5 30.0 28.3 1.3 65.5 62.3 27.2 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 30.6 30.9 29.3 1.2 63.9 61.5 28.0 30.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 29.7 29.7 29.2 1.0 61.2 59.4 27.1 29.3 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 31.0 31.3 28.3 1.1 62.0 61.1 28.4 30.6 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 29.3 29.9 28.0 0.4 56.6 53.8 27.9 28.7 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 31.5 31.7 30.7 1.8 74.1 69.5 28.8 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 31.8 32.0 29.2 1.4 66.8 64.5 29.0 31.4 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.9 30.3 1.0 62.3 59.0 27.2 29.0 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.9 28.9 27.2 1.0 63.1 59.8 26.9 28.6 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.3 30.3 30.7 0.8 59.3 57.6 27.6 28.8 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 24.9 25.2 24.7 0.9 60.3 58.6 22.7 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 30.1 30.6 30.4 1.3 65.9 62.2 27.7 29.7 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.9 30.0 30.2 0.9 61.7 58.2 28.0 29.5 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 29.7 30.2 30.5 0.7 57.1 56.2 27.7 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.9 28.5 0.8 61.3 57.7 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 31.0 30.5 29.3 1.3 67.0 63.5 28.3 29.5 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 30.4 31.1 29.0 1.1 62.2 61.1 27.9 29.9 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.7 30.0 29.8 1.1 65.5 61.3 28.1 29.3 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 31.5 32.0 30.1 2.0 74.2 70.2 28.7 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 24.2 24.8 26.0 0.9 61.3 58.4 23.0 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 29.8 30.5 30.6 0.9 60.9 58.3 27.9 29.4 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------