***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.5 30.8 0.8 62.0 57.2 27.9 29.2 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 29.5 30.3 30.7 0.8 62.6 57.6 28.0 29.3 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.6 31.2 1.0 64.7 58.7 27.1 29.0 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.2 23.3 29.5 1.6 69.7 65.1 20.1 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 29.8 30.0 29.4 1.0 63.4 59.9 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.7 29.4 26.7 1.1 65.7 62.7 26.5 28.4 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.2 29.7 30.5 0.7 60.8 56.0 27.6 28.9 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.7 27.4 0.7 59.3 56.2 16.4 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 29.1 29.8 29.7 1.2 65.9 61.5 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 28.9 29.2 28.3 1.1 65.6 60.2 27.5 28.2 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.0 29.2 0.8 59.6 58.0 27.6 28.5 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 28.4 27.9 28.9 0.6 55.9 55.4 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 29.5 30.1 28.1 0.7 57.4 56.5 27.8 28.9 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.8 28.2 0.3 56.5 52.2 27.3 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 31.2 30.9 30.7 1.5 68.6 65.1 28.1 30.3 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.3 31.0 28.9 1.0 62.7 59.9 28.4 29.7 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.8 29.6 30.5 1.0 64.6 58.7 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.2 28.1 27.2 0.8 63.0 58.1 26.5 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 29.2 29.1 30.9 0.8 62.9 57.6 27.4 28.9 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 23.8 24.2 24.4 0.4 57.3 54.0 22.6 23.4 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 29.5 29.9 30.3 1.0 63.0 59.3 27.5 29.2 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.9 30.4 1.0 64.6 59.0 27.7 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.9 30.7 0.6 61.2 55.4 27.5 28.5 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.5 28.7 0.7 61.0 56.6 27.0 28.4 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.6 30.1 29.2 1.0 64.4 59.7 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 29.2 30.0 28.8 0.6 58.2 56.6 28.0 28.7 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.0 29.8 29.8 0.9 63.6 58.1 27.5 28.6 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 31.0 30.8 29.9 1.6 69.3 65.6 28.0 30.2 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.2 23.2 25.9 0.6 60.0 55.8 22.0 22.6 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.6 30.7 0.8 61.9 57.0 27.7 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------