***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 31.8 32.0 31.2 1.2 70.0 65.4 28.5 30.7 31.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 31.0 31.1 31.4 1.3 70.4 64.3 29.1 29.6 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 31.7 31.6 31.8 1.4 70.6 66.1 28.3 30.2 31.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 25.3 25.8 29.4 2.0 81.6 73.1 21.5 23.3 25.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 32.2 32.5 29.9 1.4 72.9 67.5 29.4 30.3 32.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 31.0 31.5 27.1 1.3 76.1 68.1 27.6 29.1 30.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 31.2 30.6 31.0 1.0 67.9 62.3 29.0 29.6 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 19.5 19.5 27.7 1.2 70.3 64.5 17.3 18.6 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 31.9 32.4 30.6 1.6 75.9 68.9 28.6 30.2 31.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 31.3 31.7 28.7 1.6 75.7 68.1 28.5 29.6 31.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 31.6 32.0 30.0 1.2 70.9 65.4 28.7 29.6 31.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 30.9 30.5 29.1 1.0 68.3 63.6 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 31.8 32.1 29.1 0.9 66.9 62.6 29.1 30.2 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 30.9 31.1 29.2 0.8 64.4 61.0 28.2 29.5 31.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 32.7 33.0 31.4 1.5 73.7 69.3 29.6 30.9 32.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 32.8 33.0 29.6 1.2 71.3 65.9 29.6 30.4 32.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 30.7 31.2 31.1 1.4 72.9 64.3 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 30.4 30.5 27.5 1.3 72.2 65.3 27.0 29.2 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 30.9 30.5 31.6 1.4 70.8 65.2 28.1 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 25.9 25.9 25.0 1.0 70.1 63.0 23.7 24.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 31.8 32.2 31.1 1.4 71.6 66.2 28.5 30.2 32.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 31.1 31.2 31.1 1.5 72.9 65.5 28.5 29.3 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 31.1 31.0 31.6 1.3 70.9 64.7 27.7 29.5 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 30.9 30.7 29.5 1.1 66.5 63.5 27.5 29.9 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 32.1 32.3 29.8 1.2 71.0 65.4 28.7 30.6 32.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 31.2 31.6 28.7 0.9 67.9 62.5 28.1 29.7 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 31.3 31.5 30.3 1.1 69.9 64.7 28.1 29.8 31.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 32.6 33.1 30.3 1.8 79.3 72.0 29.8 30.5 32.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 25.9 26.3 26.5 1.2 71.5 64.7 22.9 24.1 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 31.4 31.1 31.4 1.2 70.3 64.3 28.8 30.0 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------