***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 30.2 30.7 30.8 1.7 67.4 67.8 26.9 28.9 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 30.3 31.3 31.3 2.0 71.9 69.8 27.1 28.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 48 52 100 29.8 30.8 31.3 1.9 67.5 68.0 27.2 28.2 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 24.5 24.7 28.7 2.5 77.2 76.2 21.0 22.2 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 49 51 100 30.9 30.9 29.2 1.5 66.2 66.2 27.8 29.3 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 48 52 100 29.4 29.5 26.3 1.1 66.6 65.5 27.0 28.0 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 30.3 30.4 30.8 1.7 69.3 68.4 26.9 28.4 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 17.5 18.7 26.4 0.9 61.5 61.2 16.7 17.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 30.7 30.7 30.4 1.9 69.3 69.6 27.2 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 30.4 30.1 27.9 1.6 68.0 67.5 26.7 28.8 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 29.6 29.9 29.4 1.1 63.0 62.3 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 28.5 29.0 27.9 0.7 60.7 60.4 26.5 28.3 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 29.7 30.1 28.8 0.6 60.1 60.0 27.9 29.5 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 27.7 30.7 29.2 1.5 63.2 64.8 26.8 27.3 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 31.9 31.8 31.6 1.8 71.4 71.0 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 30.6 31.1 29.0 1.0 64.0 63.2 28.3 30.3 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 30.3 30.5 31.1 2.3 73.6 72.7 26.5 28.1 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 28.0 29.4 26.4 1.3 63.8 64.5 26.2 27.7 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 30.1 30.7 31.5 2.1 72.3 70.9 26.6 28.1 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 23.7 25.0 24.1 0.8 62.3 61.3 22.3 23.4 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 30.3 30.5 30.8 1.7 67.6 67.6 27.3 28.7 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 31.0 31.5 31.1 2.4 74.7 74.1 27.2 28.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 29.9 30.8 31.6 2.2 71.2 70.6 26.8 27.8 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 28.1 30.1 29.1 1.5 63.3 64.7 26.4 27.7 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 29.6 30.0 29.5 1.3 64.7 64.7 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 29.3 29.4 27.2 0.3 56.4 56.8 27.5 29.0 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 28.9 30.1 30.0 1.5 66.1 66.4 26.7 28.6 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 31.7 32.1 29.9 2.1 74.9 73.6 29.2 29.8 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 23.3 24.7 25.6 1.2 63.9 64.4 21.7 22.9 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 29.8 30.5 31.1 1.8 69.3 68.4 26.6 28.2 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------