***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.2 19.2 0.5 65.8 58.6 14.8 15.7 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.1 15.9 19.1 0.6 65.7 60.0 15.2 15.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.1 19.0 19.6 0.7 66.4 60.9 17.2 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 15.0 15.4 17.3 1.0 75.0 67.2 12.5 14.0 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.8 16.9 0.7 65.8 61.6 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 13.9 13.9 15.2 0.8 69.8 64.1 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.6 19.1 0.5 64.6 58.3 15.3 15.7 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.3 14.8 0.6 62.3 59.8 8.1 8.8 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.0 15.9 17.0 0.7 67.5 62.2 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.0 16.2 15.5 0.7 65.4 61.9 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.7 16.6 0.6 62.2 60.4 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.6 15.6 0.5 61.2 58.6 12.6 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.7 14.6 0.4 62.0 58.7 13.1 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.0 16.3 16.5 0.3 59.9 56.6 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 17.1 17.4 18.7 1.0 73.7 67.1 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.3 15.8 0.7 66.3 61.8 14.8 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 16.8 16.8 18.9 0.7 67.0 60.6 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.7 14.3 0.6 64.7 62.0 12.3 13.6 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 16.2 16.2 19.2 0.6 65.8 59.9 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.1 12.1 0.6 64.1 61.6 9.1 9.8 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 15.8 15.8 18.3 0.6 66.3 60.7 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.5 18.8 0.7 66.3 60.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.3 19.0 0.4 62.4 57.9 14.4 15.0 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.7 16.1 16.4 0.5 62.7 59.7 14.8 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.2 17.7 0.6 64.8 60.0 14.5 15.7 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.0 14.5 0.4 60.2 58.5 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.3 18.3 0.5 64.6 58.5 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 14.6 14.9 17.6 1.1 75.5 67.7 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 13.8 14.2 13.8 0.6 64.5 61.7 12.2 12.7 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 16.8 16.3 19.3 0.5 64.9 59.6 15.2 16.0 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------