***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.6 19.5 0.5 59.2 56.6 15.5 16.3 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.2 19.3 0.4 58.5 55.2 15.5 16.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.5 19.9 0.5 59.7 57.8 17.5 18.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.5 17.4 0.8 64.4 62.6 13.0 13.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.4 17.1 0.4 60.1 57.6 14.2 15.1 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.2 14.0 15.3 0.5 62.3 61.8 13.3 13.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.4 19.3 0.3 57.0 54.1 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.1 14.8 0.1 52.0 53.2 8.5 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.4 17.1 0.5 62.3 59.4 15.3 16.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.9 15.6 0.4 58.0 57.2 15.6 15.9 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.8 16.7 0.2 54.4 55.0 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.8 15.7 0.1 51.4 52.7 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.1 14.8 0.2 53.4 55.7 14.5 15.1 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.7 16.7 0.1 50.5 51.3 16.1 16.7 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 17.4 17.5 18.8 0.7 64.7 62.8 16.2 16.8 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.7 16.0 0.4 59.5 58.7 15.8 16.6 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.1 19.1 0.5 58.3 55.6 15.9 16.9 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.5 14.5 0.2 54.2 55.4 14.0 14.3 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.4 19.4 0.4 59.1 55.9 15.7 16.2 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.2 12.1 0.1 51.2 53.0 9.6 10.2 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.2 18.5 0.5 61.1 58.1 15.0 15.8 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.0 19.0 0.5 59.7 57.0 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.8 19.3 0.3 56.8 54.6 14.8 15.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.8 16.7 0.2 54.9 54.7 15.8 16.6 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.2 18.0 0.5 59.1 57.5 15.1 15.9 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.2 14.8 0.3 59.8 58.4 14.5 15.1 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.4 18.7 0.5 58.9 57.2 14.9 15.7 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 15.5 15.4 17.8 0.8 67.2 64.6 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.3 13.9 0.2 50.4 53.3 12.4 13.3 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.4 19.6 0.4 58.5 55.5 15.4 16.1 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------