***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 17.0 17.5 20.0 0.8 71.3 63.5 15.1 16.2 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 17.3 17.4 19.9 0.8 67.7 63.7 14.7 15.7 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 19.2 19.4 20.3 0.8 70.2 63.9 17.3 18.1 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 15.2 15.7 17.9 1.1 76.5 71.3 12.5 14.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 15.7 15.7 18.0 0.7 69.2 64.6 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 14.2 14.7 15.4 0.7 73.5 66.9 12.5 13.4 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.3 19.9 0.7 65.8 62.2 15.1 16.6 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.0 15.3 0.5 63.8 60.3 8.6 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 16.7 17.0 18.1 0.8 70.4 65.7 14.8 15.6 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 16.7 16.9 16.3 0.7 68.1 63.4 15.0 15.6 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.6 16.0 17.5 0.5 62.7 59.5 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.4 16.5 0.5 63.8 60.6 12.7 13.4 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.9 14.8 15.9 0.3 57.2 55.9 13.6 14.6 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.7 17.5 0.4 60.3 58.2 15.3 16.2 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 18.0 18.2 19.6 0.9 73.6 68.5 16.2 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 16.1 17.0 16.9 0.5 64.4 61.6 15.1 15.8 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 17.8 18.0 19.8 1.0 70.6 65.1 15.9 16.7 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.7 15.3 0.5 64.6 60.6 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 17.3 17.2 20.0 0.8 67.9 64.1 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.6 11.2 13.3 0.6 65.2 61.5 9.7 10.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 16.6 16.9 19.2 0.7 67.7 63.4 14.8 15.7 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.7 17.1 19.9 1.0 70.8 65.5 14.7 15.4 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 16.5 16.6 20.0 0.8 67.6 63.0 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.6 17.5 0.5 62.1 59.6 15.2 16.0 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 16.7 16.8 18.8 0.8 69.8 63.6 15.0 15.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.7 15.4 15.4 0.5 64.0 61.5 14.0 14.4 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 16.8 17.3 19.4 0.8 71.0 63.7 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 15.8 16.3 18.4 1.0 76.9 70.9 14.1 14.6 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.3 14.6 0.5 63.7 60.5 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 17.2 17.6 20.2 0.8 67.6 63.2 15.1 16.0 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------