***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 16.1 16.5 19.2 0.4 57.1 57.4 15.6 16.0 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 16.0 16.9 19.5 0.9 64.2 63.1 15.3 15.9 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 17.8 19.2 19.8 0.8 65.0 63.4 16.7 17.6 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 14.5 14.9 17.5 1.1 70.9 69.3 12.0 13.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 14.8 15.1 17.7 0.6 62.8 62.5 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.7 14.8 0.6 63.8 62.3 12.3 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 16.4 16.8 19.5 0.7 62.0 61.5 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 8.9 9.6 15.1 0.8 65.8 63.8 8.5 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 16.1 16.6 18.0 0.7 65.0 63.3 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 16.3 16.4 16.2 1.0 70.2 67.5 14.4 15.8 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 15.7 16.1 17.5 0.6 63.1 61.7 13.8 15.6 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 13.8 14.1 16.3 0.7 64.7 63.4 12.6 13.7 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 14.8 15.0 16.0 0.2 53.9 54.4 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 16.4 16.8 17.3 0.6 57.9 59.4 15.6 16.3 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 46 54 100 17.7 17.8 19.4 0.7 66.0 64.3 16.1 17.3 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 15.9 16.5 16.9 0.5 61.6 60.5 15.0 15.6 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 49 51 100 17.6 17.6 19.7 1.3 69.2 68.8 15.7 16.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 14.3 14.9 15.4 0.9 65.1 65.6 12.8 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 16.3 16.6 19.8 1.0 67.1 65.9 15.0 16.1 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 10.3 10.4 13.6 0.9 66.5 66.4 9.1 10.2 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 15.9 16.2 18.8 0.5 61.1 60.2 14.3 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 16.4 16.7 19.9 1.3 70.5 69.4 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 16.0 16.3 19.8 1.1 69.3 68.0 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 16.1 16.4 17.5 0.6 61.6 61.8 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 15.5 15.5 17.9 0.0 53.5 51.7 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 14.6 14.5 14.7 0.1 54.9 53.3 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 15.8 15.9 18.4 0.1 55.0 53.6 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 15.4 15.4 18.1 1.0 72.8 69.9 13.7 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 12.8 14.3 14.7 0.9 67.5 66.4 12.0 12.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 16.4 16.7 19.7 0.8 63.7 62.9 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------