***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 25.1 69.6 47.2 40.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 24.2 37.4 26.2 69.7 42.9 38.8 24.1 40.1 61.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 23.6 36.8 24.2 65.9 41.6 39.4 28.1 40.8 68.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 54.7 43.7 22.7 63.6 46.2 39.6 29.4 44.3 55.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 34.2 26.4 23.7 66.9 47.5 40.8 21.8 27.1 38.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 26.2 37.3 30.5 74.2 47.6 42.4 28.9 39.0 62.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 26.9 30.3 26.4 67.6 42.0 38.7 22.7 39.5 49.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 37.8 58.6 28.0 74.5 47.7 42.2 46.4 59.2 86.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 26.0 38.5 24.4 67.4 48.2 41.1 25.6 41.6 47.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 35.3 52.0 28.6 69.3 44.7 40.3 38.3 55.2 75.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 27.8 38.2 22.1 71.8 46.8 42.2 24.3 42.0 50.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 24.2 36.6 20.9 72.4 49.7 42.7 23.7 37.6 60.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 18.0 31.5 22.8 70.3 48.0 41.4 22.4 32.5 37.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 34.6 50.5 29.9 65.6 40.8 37.9 40.6 58.0 73.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 16.8 22.3 19.0 62.1 43.8 39.7 16.1 25.3 39.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 19.3 30.3 22.4 70.4 47.3 42.0 21.5 32.3 38.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 29.3 37.6 25.2 67.4 39.7 38.1 28.4 45.0 62.6 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 30.6 34.7 33.4 67.0 42.0 38.8 30.6 43.0 73.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 23.5 38.5 25.6 68.9 42.2 38.8 32.9 47.3 73.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 32.3 42.8 36.4 72.2 44.5 40.7 33.6 50.2 61.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 31.1 41.0 22.7 67.1 45.7 40.7 29.9 45.0 55.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 26.8 33.2 25.4 68.2 38.9 37.8 30.6 41.0 61.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 28.8 33.1 24.9 66.6 41.9 38.5 26.7 42.7 50.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 36.8 43.5 28.8 64.1 39.9 38.1 38.7 57.0 69.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 32.0 38.6 27.4 67.6 44.8 39.4 34.1 46.1 55.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 18.5 30.6 17.0 65.4 48.3 39.5 25.3 31.5 48.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.5 35.7 28.4 68.8 45.9 39.8 27.9 36.5 48.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 17.7 22.5 21.2 64.2 45.1 40.4 17.2 22.9 43.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 49.4 62.7 34.8 69.0 41.1 39.1 51.4 69.3 82.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 19.5 27.7 26.2 69.5 43.7 39.4 21.3 32.7 55.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------