***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.1 41.2 60.2 43.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.3 3.7 3.0 45.9 53.9 41.3 0.5 2.8 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.4 8.5 2.7 51.2 62.1 45.0 1.0 2.8 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.6 3.8 2.1 36.1 59.2 40.7 0.8 1.3 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 0.5 1.3 2.1 36.9 56.9 40.1 0.1 1.0 2.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 0.6 4.0 3.9 51.5 63.8 42.4 0.0 1.3 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.0 2.8 40.4 54.5 40.6 0.6 2.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 2.8 8.0 3.1 44.2 53.5 39.7 2.6 6.6 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 4.7 3.6 2.3 40.8 55.2 40.8 0.8 2.8 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.3 3.3 46.7 52.9 39.6 0.1 5.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 0.8 4.2 2.2 40.2 58.5 40.1 0.0 1.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 0.3 1.9 1.9 36.3 55.9 38.9 0.0 0.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 0.4 2.2 2.5 42.6 61.2 41.7 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.5 10.6 3.7 48.2 53.7 41.9 5.7 9.7 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 0.8 3.5 1.9 36.4 63.5 41.4 0.1 1.8 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 0.2 1.1 2.4 41.6 62.7 41.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 0.8 2.3 3.1 43.9 53.5 42.0 0.6 1.6 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.0 5.7 4.3 51.2 53.1 39.6 1.2 4.3 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.4 4.3 3.0 48.3 56.1 42.5 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 2.0 4.9 4.8 50.0 54.0 39.8 2.6 4.3 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.7 1.9 41.6 57.5 42.3 0.1 4.4 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.0 3.3 3.4 49.2 55.5 42.6 0.7 1.6 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.8 5.3 3.0 49.2 59.5 43.5 1.1 3.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.1 10.8 3.7 53.2 55.1 42.2 2.4 10.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.5 2.4 40.9 56.6 42.9 1.2 4.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 0.9 3.2 1.6 32.2 61.1 43.0 0.0 1.8 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.7 2.5 40.6 58.4 43.3 1.0 3.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.1 4.5 2.2 37.3 63.1 41.5 0.6 2.4 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.2 4.6 51.3 52.9 39.6 2.2 5.4 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.2 3.7 2.9 46.7 56.1 43.0 1.5 2.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------