***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.0 52.7 56.6 35.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.0 3.9 3.2 39.4 42.6 34.5 2.0 5.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.9 10.6 3.7 45.2 54.2 34.9 2.1 7.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.1 13.9 4.3 56.9 61.2 38.2 5.5 9.6 19.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.1 13.5 4.7 62.8 62.2 38.4 3.2 9.0 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 4.1 13.3 6.1 67.7 58.9 41.8 2.9 9.9 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.7 3.4 3.2 37.8 42.3 32.6 2.1 4.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 6.5 17.4 5.5 72.6 56.1 37.6 9.0 16.6 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.4 14.6 4.7 58.7 61.7 37.8 5.4 9.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 4.7 14.9 5.4 61.6 55.3 36.8 6.8 14.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 4.7 19.0 4.6 74.4 61.2 38.7 5.5 13.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.4 15.2 4.5 81.7 61.6 38.3 3.4 9.9 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 1.6 6.5 5.0 76.1 62.7 39.4 1.1 5.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.8 8.6 4.0 37.5 44.7 32.3 4.7 11.6 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.7 14.8 3.3 52.6 62.7 37.5 6.1 8.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.9 13.0 4.6 73.6 62.7 39.2 3.0 8.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.2 5.8 3.1 37.0 43.5 33.4 2.2 6.6 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 3.4 10.7 5.8 52.7 50.4 35.6 4.3 10.4 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.8 4.2 3.2 39.9 45.9 34.8 2.1 7.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 4.4 14.2 6.9 63.9 53.2 37.3 4.6 12.3 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.2 11.8 4.1 55.3 59.3 35.8 5.6 9.4 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.8 6.6 3.5 41.8 46.4 34.5 4.1 7.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.3 4.4 3.1 37.4 48.8 34.0 2.0 5.3 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.9 13.0 4.4 42.5 49.1 33.8 4.6 13.1 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 2.4 13.4 4.9 54.2 58.4 35.3 1.7 8.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.5 15.7 4.0 80.0 64.4 40.5 5.0 9.6 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 2.9 8.9 4.7 52.5 55.7 35.9 5.8 8.6 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 1.9 9.8 3.9 58.9 61.9 38.8 1.6 5.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 8.3 17.8 6.1 55.3 49.6 35.6 9.5 18.2 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.1 4.1 3.4 41.9 46.0 34.9 1.6 6.5 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------