***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 12.8 143.4 75.2 60.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 18.0 26.4 12.7 139.8 76.8 60.5 3.3 14.6 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.7 19.0 12.0 131.9 73.4 60.7 0.7 6.7 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.2 14.4 10.9 129.4 75.5 60.8 1.4 5.1 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 12.5 16.5 11.6 136.1 79.1 62.6 1.5 5.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.5 13.2 15.2 151.9 75.8 60.5 0.8 4.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.0 21.9 12.8 135.0 71.9 60.3 0.7 5.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 16.4 22.1 13.9 150.8 77.8 64.4 2.5 6.7 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 16.1 20.2 12.1 137.5 78.1 63.4 1.1 7.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 17.4 22.0 14.0 138.3 77.3 63.3 4.1 8.9 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 16.1 24.0 11.0 153.9 78.5 64.2 1.8 5.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 14.0 21.5 10.6 152.3 78.7 64.1 1.4 3.4 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.4 15.0 11.4 146.1 76.1 60.6 1.0 6.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 27.5 35.5 15.0 131.6 76.7 61.4 0.8 5.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.0 10.6 8.8 123.4 73.5 58.2 0.0 0.6 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.5 14.2 11.3 150.7 77.2 61.8 1.7 4.1 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.3 22.7 11.3 125.6 72.3 57.9 2.9 7.6 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 23.6 29.1 16.0 123.8 75.0 61.0 4.2 10.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.5 24.5 12.3 136.9 75.6 60.2 0.6 8.3 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 15.8 18.2 17.4 132.9 77.4 62.4 5.8 11.6 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 18.0 27.8 11.4 144.8 78.4 63.1 0.7 3.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.4 18.0 11.2 122.0 73.1 58.2 1.7 5.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 19.7 23.1 12.3 133.6 73.1 60.0 0.2 4.8 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 17.2 20.7 14.0 123.7 75.0 60.1 3.9 10.4 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.7 14.8 13.6 135.0 75.5 59.7 0.4 3.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.1 14.7 8.8 142.2 78.4 60.2 0.5 5.1 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.0 25.5 14.3 138.0 75.0 59.9 0.3 2.8 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.6 12.6 10.3 135.2 75.1 61.2 0.8 5.8 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 33.0 37.6 16.7 128.9 75.9 62.0 4.2 15.3 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.3 19.1 13.1 142.4 75.9 61.1 1.2 5.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------