***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.2 43.0 47.7 39.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.2 4.2 7.3 53.0 52.4 43.2 1.0 4.0 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.1 3.8 5.8 40.9 44.3 37.6 0.5 4.5 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.8 5.3 38.7 44.5 34.8 1.2 5.4 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 0.8 0.5 5.3 38.7 45.1 34.5 0.0 2.0 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.2 3.0 5.3 36.4 40.7 33.3 1.1 6.3 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.1 7.5 53.8 54.1 42.7 1.7 4.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.7 6.2 5.5 40.0 42.9 35.1 3.4 11.6 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 0.7 1.0 5.3 38.4 44.6 33.7 0.2 2.0 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.4 2.3 6.0 38.9 42.6 34.6 0.4 5.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 1.0 2.2 4.3 36.0 46.8 34.5 0.2 2.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 0.9 0.2 3.9 35.2 42.5 34.1 0.0 2.5 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 1.0 1.7 4.0 32.3 40.7 32.7 0.8 2.8 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.0 2.6 7.2 45.3 38.9 36.1 1.9 9.4 31.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.3 7.2 5.0 41.9 48.1 36.8 0.9 7.5 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.7 2.9 4.0 33.1 43.5 33.6 0.5 4.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.7 7.7 7.7 59.2 55.3 45.2 2.2 5.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.0 5.4 7.3 41.8 42.0 35.6 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.8 5.8 7.0 50.8 50.4 42.0 1.9 5.7 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 2.7 3.7 7.3 43.0 41.2 34.4 2.1 6.9 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.6 4.0 5.3 38.1 41.7 35.4 0.9 8.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 10.6 6.8 7.4 57.2 52.6 43.6 3.8 6.6 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.9 3.7 6.4 46.9 46.3 39.7 1.4 8.0 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.2 1.8 6.6 41.0 40.8 35.9 0.9 7.7 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.3 6.7 6.6 42.1 43.5 36.1 0.3 10.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 1.6 2.2 2.7 26.7 35.8 27.1 1.6 5.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.8 4.1 6.9 43.6 45.6 38.5 2.8 6.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.8 4.7 37.0 44.9 35.1 2.2 5.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 4.2 8.7 7.5 42.7 41.8 35.4 6.7 10.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 9.6 6.7 6.8 48.3 50.7 41.9 3.2 6.3 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------