***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 30.5 1.3 77.8 71.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.2 30.1 30.5 1.3 74.3 70.9 28.0 29.2 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 30.0 30.3 30.8 1.6 78.9 73.8 28.0 29.3 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 22.8 23.1 28.7 0.8 65.2 62.8 22.1 22.6 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 30.5 31.1 28.8 1.0 68.8 66.3 29.1 29.5 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.2 26.1 0.5 60.5 58.7 27.2 28.9 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 29.6 29.8 30.1 1.1 70.0 67.8 27.9 28.9 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 18.0 18.5 26.7 0.8 66.9 63.0 17.4 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 30.2 30.6 29.3 1.3 76.2 70.4 28.3 29.2 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 30.2 30.7 27.7 1.1 72.4 67.6 28.2 29.0 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 30.4 30.7 28.3 1.0 70.9 65.9 28.3 29.1 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 28.9 29.8 28.0 0.9 69.0 63.8 27.9 28.6 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 30.3 31.0 27.6 0.8 67.8 62.9 28.5 30.1 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 29.8 29.8 28.6 1.3 75.1 71.2 28.0 28.7 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 30.4 31.0 29.7 0.9 68.0 65.1 29.3 30.2 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 30.8 31.4 28.1 0.8 68.4 63.4 29.2 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 29.3 29.8 30.0 1.3 73.9 71.0 27.4 28.4 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 28.8 29.0 26.6 1.0 71.4 66.2 27.3 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 29.7 30.1 30.8 1.6 77.6 73.8 27.7 28.6 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 24.3 24.6 24.2 0.6 62.8 59.9 23.5 24.0 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 30.2 30.5 30.2 1.3 75.5 70.4 28.0 29.3 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 30.0 30.5 30.3 1.5 79.4 74.3 27.8 28.8 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 29.8 30.6 30.6 1.7 80.2 75.9 27.8 28.8 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 29.7 30.0 28.6 1.3 76.7 71.0 27.6 28.6 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 30.5 30.1 29.0 1.0 72.0 67.3 28.5 29.4 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 30.0 30.0 27.3 0.4 54.8 56.7 28.3 29.8 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 29.9 30.2 29.5 1.1 73.4 68.3 27.7 29.1 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 30.4 30.6 29.1 0.7 62.3 61.4 29.2 30.2 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 23.8 24.7 25.5 0.9 69.4 64.5 22.1 23.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 30.1 30.3 30.7 1.4 74.6 71.1 27.8 29.1 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------