***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 31.1 1.9 73.1 68.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 30.9 31.1 31.0 1.9 74.3 68.1 28.0 29.7 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 31.0 31.7 31.3 2.1 75.2 69.4 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 24.1 24.0 29.5 1.4 67.4 64.9 21.1 23.2 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 31.9 31.8 29.4 1.6 71.1 65.8 28.2 30.3 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 29.8 29.9 26.9 1.3 66.2 63.9 27.4 29.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 30.5 30.9 30.6 1.7 73.9 66.9 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 18.6 19.1 27.5 1.5 67.9 64.4 16.4 18.3 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 30.9 30.9 29.8 1.9 72.5 67.8 27.7 29.4 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 30.4 30.7 28.3 1.7 70.1 66.1 27.2 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 31.6 31.1 29.0 1.7 70.7 66.4 28.0 30.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 30.6 30.3 28.8 1.6 69.7 65.4 27.1 29.3 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 31.9 31.3 28.3 1.5 68.9 65.4 28.4 30.6 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 30.3 30.9 29.2 1.9 71.5 67.2 27.9 28.7 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 47 53 100 31.3 31.1 30.3 1.6 69.7 67.0 28.8 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 32.7 32.1 28.8 1.5 68.8 65.3 29.0 31.4 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 30.2 30.1 30.4 1.7 72.8 66.7 27.2 29.0 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.9 29.6 27.3 1.7 69.8 65.0 26.9 28.6 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 30.3 31.0 31.3 2.1 75.4 69.3 27.6 28.8 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.6 24.9 1.3 66.1 62.2 22.7 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 30.9 30.9 30.7 1.9 73.2 68.1 27.7 29.7 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 30.7 30.9 30.6 1.9 73.7 67.6 28.0 29.5 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 30.4 31.1 31.1 2.3 76.5 70.2 27.7 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 30.0 30.4 29.2 2.0 72.4 67.5 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 30.9 31.1 29.7 1.7 71.2 67.2 28.3 29.5 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 30.4 31.1 28.2 1.2 65.5 62.1 27.9 29.9 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 30.6 31.2 30.1 1.8 72.0 67.3 28.1 29.3 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 30.6 31.6 29.8 1.4 67.5 64.7 28.7 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 24.2 25.0 26.1 1.5 69.0 63.9 23.0 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 30.6 31.4 31.2 2.0 74.8 68.4 27.9 29.4 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------