***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 0.0 31.1 2.0 79.7 70.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 30.3 30.9 31.3 2.2 80.1 71.8 28.0 29.3 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 30.6 31.5 31.4 2.2 82.0 72.6 27.1 29.0 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 23.3 23.4 29.4 1.1 70.6 63.4 20.1 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 31.3 30.8 29.3 1.4 72.0 65.9 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.5 26.6 0.8 68.7 59.6 26.5 28.4 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 30.0 30.5 30.9 1.9 77.5 70.1 27.6 28.9 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 18.5 18.6 27.4 1.2 72.6 64.4 16.4 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 30.6 31.3 29.7 1.8 75.8 69.2 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 30.4 31.1 28.2 1.6 75.2 67.2 27.5 28.2 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 30.7 30.3 28.8 1.4 72.9 66.1 27.6 28.5 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 29.8 30.0 28.6 1.3 74.0 64.7 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 30.7 30.8 28.1 1.1 71.1 62.7 27.8 28.9 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 29.9 30.7 29.3 2.1 80.8 71.7 27.3 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 31.4 30.9 30.1 1.2 71.4 65.0 28.1 30.3 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 31.7 31.5 28.5 1.1 70.0 63.2 28.4 29.7 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 29.9 30.6 30.9 2.1 81.2 72.1 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 29.3 29.8 27.3 1.6 76.5 67.5 26.5 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 30.0 30.5 31.5 2.4 82.7 73.3 27.4 28.9 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 24.9 25.3 24.9 1.1 70.4 63.0 22.6 23.4 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 30.4 30.9 30.7 1.9 77.1 69.7 27.5 29.2 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 30.2 31.1 31.1 2.4 84.4 73.8 27.7 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 30.2 31.3 31.3 2.5 84.9 74.4 27.5 28.5 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 30.1 31.0 29.3 2.1 80.4 71.2 27.0 28.4 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 30.9 30.8 29.6 1.7 74.5 68.5 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 27.7 30.2 27.9 0.6 63.9 57.9 28.0 28.7 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 30.1 30.7 30.2 1.8 77.5 69.5 27.5 28.6 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 31.2 30.8 29.6 1.0 69.4 62.3 28.0 30.2 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 24.4 25.0 26.1 1.5 76.2 66.5 22.0 22.6 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 30.3 31.0 31.4 2.1 80.4 71.5 27.7 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------