***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 29.9 0.3 59.7 54.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 28.0 30.3 29.9 0.3 61.3 54.9 29.1 29.6 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.6 31.1 30.1 0.5 63.1 56.5 28.3 30.2 31.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 21.1 23.0 28.3 -0.2 47.8 48.1 21.5 23.3 25.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 28.5 30.3 28.2 0.0 50.3 50.5 29.4 30.3 32.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 26.7 29.0 25.8 -0.3 49.9 47.7 27.6 29.1 30.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.8 30.1 29.6 0.1 59.8 52.7 29.0 29.6 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 16.5 18.5 26.3 -0.1 49.3 49.7 17.3 18.6 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 28.4 31.2 28.6 0.3 58.4 54.1 28.6 30.2 31.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.6 30.2 27.0 0.1 54.6 51.9 28.5 29.6 31.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 30.3 29.7 27.7 0.1 50.6 51.6 28.7 29.6 31.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 29.7 29.1 27.5 0.0 50.8 51.1 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 27.9 30.2 27.1 -0.1 50.4 50.2 29.1 30.2 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 27.8 30.5 27.9 0.2 57.6 53.8 28.2 29.5 31.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 31.5 31.2 29.1 0.0 54.0 50.3 29.6 30.9 32.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 28.7 30.1 27.5 -0.1 48.2 49.8 29.6 30.4 32.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.6 29.5 0.3 62.1 55.1 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.9 29.3 26.0 0.0 54.3 51.1 27.0 29.2 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 27.6 30.3 30.1 0.4 63.7 56.8 28.1 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 22.6 24.2 23.6 -0.4 42.9 46.4 23.7 24.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 30.7 31.4 29.5 0.3 58.9 54.2 28.5 30.2 32.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.9 30.3 29.6 0.4 61.8 56.4 28.5 29.3 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 27.9 30.4 29.8 0.6 65.5 58.0 27.7 29.5 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 27.7 30.3 28.0 0.3 61.1 54.8 27.5 29.9 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 31.1 31.4 28.4 0.1 57.3 52.3 28.7 30.6 32.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 27.8 29.4 26.9 -0.5 43.3 45.7 28.1 29.7 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 30.3 31.1 29.0 0.2 58.7 53.3 28.1 29.8 31.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 28.8 30.5 28.5 -0.3 48.3 47.9 29.8 30.5 32.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 21.8 24.2 24.9 -0.1 52.1 49.9 22.9 24.1 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 30.5 30.4 30.0 0.3 61.3 55.0 28.8 30.0 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------