***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 9999.0 0.0 29.9 1.2 67.9 63.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 28.8 29.7 29.9 1.0 61.7 61.9 27.1 28.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 30.1 30.9 30.3 1.5 70.7 67.1 27.2 28.2 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 22.7 23.2 27.7 0.7 65.7 61.1 21.0 22.2 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 31.0 31.0 28.3 1.0 67.9 63.3 27.8 29.3 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.5 28.2 24.9 0.1 57.4 55.5 27.0 28.0 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 28.8 29.2 29.4 0.5 56.9 56.8 26.9 28.4 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 17.7 19.0 25.8 0.6 63.1 59.2 16.7 17.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 30.8 31.3 29.2 1.3 73.4 66.0 27.2 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 30.5 30.6 27.1 1.1 70.7 63.8 26.7 28.8 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 31.0 30.4 27.7 0.8 67.2 61.7 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 28.9 29.2 27.0 0.6 64.3 59.7 26.5 28.3 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.2 27.0 0.7 65.4 60.5 27.9 29.5 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 27.9 30.7 28.2 1.0 64.4 62.6 26.8 27.3 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 31.7 31.2 29.4 0.6 69.4 61.6 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 31.9 32.0 27.6 0.8 69.0 61.8 28.3 30.3 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 28.5 29.2 29.4 0.9 61.1 61.1 26.5 28.1 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 28.2 29.4 25.7 0.7 65.1 59.7 26.2 27.7 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 29.8 30.1 30.2 1.4 66.5 65.7 26.6 28.1 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 24.1 24.5 23.4 0.3 59.0 56.1 22.3 23.4 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 30.3 30.7 29.9 1.2 69.2 64.3 27.3 28.7 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 28.6 30.0 29.8 1.3 64.0 65.9 27.2 28.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.9 30.2 1.6 71.5 68.2 26.8 27.8 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 29.5 30.1 28.0 1.0 68.4 62.4 26.4 27.7 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 29.7 30.0 28.3 0.6 62.6 59.2 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 29.5 29.5 26.4 0.2 58.9 56.3 27.5 29.0 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 29.0 29.3 28.8 0.6 61.4 58.8 26.7 28.6 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.3 31.1 28.3 0.5 65.9 59.7 29.2 29.8 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 23.6 24.5 24.7 0.6 60.9 58.4 21.7 22.9 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 28.6 29.9 30.1 1.1 63.0 62.5 26.6 28.2 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------