***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 19.0 0.4 62.9 59.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.0 19.0 0.4 61.6 59.0 15.5 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 18.7 18.9 19.2 0.7 75.7 67.3 17.6 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.3 16.8 -0.1 51.9 48.6 13.0 13.2 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.5 16.8 0.1 54.2 54.1 14.0 14.5 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.3 14.8 -0.1 52.6 50.8 12.8 13.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.3 16.3 18.9 0.2 55.0 56.0 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.9 14.7 -0.1 52.2 49.9 8.6 8.9 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.9 17.2 0.3 58.5 58.3 15.3 15.7 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.6 15.5 0.1 57.5 54.8 15.3 15.6 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.3 16.2 0.0 53.2 52.4 14.7 15.3 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.4 15.5 0.0 53.6 51.4 13.0 13.2 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.7 15.3 0.2 60.3 57.4 14.0 14.5 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.6 17.2 0.3 63.1 59.4 15.8 16.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.8 17.1 17.9 0.0 58.8 52.4 16.4 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.1 16.0 0.1 57.0 54.8 15.7 16.0 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 16.5 16.6 18.4 0.3 56.9 56.5 16.1 16.4 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.0 14.6 0.1 54.5 52.7 13.3 14.0 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 16.3 16.5 19.1 0.6 69.5 64.3 15.4 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.9 12.7 -0.2 43.7 46.2 9.4 10.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.7 18.3 0.4 63.5 60.0 15.1 15.4 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.6 15.8 18.7 0.5 65.3 63.3 14.8 15.5 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 15.8 16.0 19.0 0.8 76.7 69.0 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.5 17.0 0.4 68.0 61.4 15.6 16.2 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 15.7 15.7 17.5 0.2 57.4 54.8 15.1 15.5 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.6 15.1 0.0 54.0 50.9 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.2 18.1 0.2 58.6 55.8 15.4 16.0 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.5 17.2 -0.2 53.2 48.3 14.0 14.5 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.1 14.0 0.0 51.6 52.0 12.9 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.4 19.2 0.4 63.3 60.9 15.7 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------