***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 19.0 0.8 71.7 60.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.3 19.2 0.9 72.5 62.5 15.2 15.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.1 19.2 19.2 1.1 73.2 64.0 17.2 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.4 17.0 0.4 61.2 57.4 12.5 14.0 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.7 16.8 0.6 63.7 59.5 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.3 13.8 15.1 0.6 62.4 60.7 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.8 19.1 0.8 71.6 61.3 15.3 15.7 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.9 15.1 0.7 67.1 60.4 8.1 8.8 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.9 17.2 0.8 66.8 62.0 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.5 16.2 15.6 0.7 66.8 61.2 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.0 15.7 16.4 0.7 66.5 61.8 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.7 16.0 0.7 66.6 62.1 12.6 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.3 14.7 15.3 0.6 61.4 61.9 13.1 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.7 17.2 0.9 67.7 63.5 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.9 18.1 0.7 64.2 61.4 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 16.0 16.1 16.0 0.6 62.0 60.6 14.8 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 16.8 17.0 18.6 0.8 71.8 60.7 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.8 14.8 0.7 67.9 61.4 12.3 13.6 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 16.2 16.4 19.3 1.1 73.8 64.3 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.1 13.3 0.6 65.3 60.0 9.1 9.8 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.8 18.3 0.8 66.4 60.8 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.9 18.7 0.9 71.9 62.5 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 15.6 15.7 19.1 1.2 72.8 66.4 14.4 15.0 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.2 17.0 0.9 69.5 63.6 14.8 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.2 17.5 0.7 65.9 59.6 14.5 15.7 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.8 14.7 15.1 0.3 54.4 55.1 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.6 18.2 0.7 69.4 60.0 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 14.0 14.3 17.4 0.5 59.2 57.7 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 13.8 14.2 14.3 0.7 68.2 62.4 12.2 12.7 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.8 16.6 19.4 1.0 73.3 62.7 15.2 16.0 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------