***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 19.3 0.8 71.5 63.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 16.7 16.3 19.4 0.8 68.3 62.6 15.5 16.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 18.8 19.1 19.5 1.0 76.4 67.0 17.5 18.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.2 17.1 0.0 52.1 52.1 13.0 13.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.3 17.0 0.3 58.6 56.6 14.2 15.1 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.8 15.1 0.1 53.0 53.1 13.3 13.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.7 19.3 0.6 65.8 60.7 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.5 15.3 0.5 61.4 59.4 8.5 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.4 17.6 0.7 63.7 63.2 15.3 16.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.4 15.9 0.6 63.4 61.6 15.6 15.9 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.9 16.6 0.4 61.6 58.7 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.2 16.1 0.4 60.9 57.9 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.2 15.3 0.1 54.8 52.9 14.5 15.1 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 17.1 17.3 17.6 0.9 72.3 64.9 16.1 16.7 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.9 18.2 0.3 56.9 56.1 16.2 16.8 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.7 16.1 0.2 54.2 53.5 15.8 16.6 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.3 18.8 0.7 65.0 61.7 15.9 16.9 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.6 15.1 15.2 0.6 64.7 61.0 14.0 14.3 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 16.7 16.8 19.5 1.0 73.7 65.2 15.7 16.2 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.5 13.5 0.4 59.6 56.7 9.6 10.2 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 16.3 16.2 18.6 0.8 67.4 64.0 15.0 15.8 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.3 18.9 0.8 68.4 64.1 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 16.4 17.1 19.3 1.1 79.6 68.0 14.8 15.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 17.0 17.1 17.4 0.9 74.7 65.9 15.8 16.6 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.3 17.7 0.6 63.6 60.5 15.1 15.9 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 14.3 15.1 15.1 -0.2 50.0 47.2 14.5 15.1 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 17.3 17.7 18.4 0.7 68.1 61.5 14.9 15.7 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.8 17.4 0.0 50.4 51.2 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.8 14.5 0.5 63.2 59.7 12.4 13.3 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 17.1 17.4 19.6 0.8 71.5 63.3 15.4 16.1 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------