***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 19.2 0.2 57.7 55.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.2 19.2 0.1 56.7 53.7 14.7 15.7 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 19.3 19.0 19.3 0.3 63.6 58.0 17.3 18.1 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.7 17.1 -0.4 42.8 44.6 12.5 14.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.7 16.9 -0.3 47.7 48.1 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 12.6 13.0 15.0 -0.5 40.6 43.8 12.5 13.4 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.9 17.0 19.1 -0.1 54.6 51.6 15.1 16.6 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.1 14.8 -0.5 41.3 43.9 8.6 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.9 17.4 0.0 55.3 53.0 14.8 15.6 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.3 15.6 -0.3 46.6 47.2 15.0 15.6 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.2 16.4 -0.2 48.9 48.8 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.3 15.9 -0.3 45.6 47.7 12.7 13.4 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.6 15.5 -0.2 49.2 48.7 13.6 14.6 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.0 17.2 -0.2 44.1 47.8 15.3 16.2 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 16.1 16.7 18.0 -0.2 48.9 47.8 16.2 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.7 16.1 -0.3 46.9 47.2 15.1 15.8 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.1 18.8 0.0 54.3 52.4 15.9 16.7 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.8 14.7 -0.4 39.7 43.5 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.9 19.3 0.2 60.9 56.1 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 8.8 9.7 12.8 -0.7 33.4 38.5 9.7 10.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 16.1 16.1 18.5 0.1 57.7 55.2 14.8 15.7 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.7 16.1 18.9 0.2 57.6 54.7 14.7 15.4 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.5 19.1 0.3 61.4 57.3 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 15.3 16.0 17.0 -0.1 51.7 51.2 15.2 16.0 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.1 17.6 0.0 54.2 52.5 15.0 15.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 13.6 14.2 15.4 -0.4 45.9 45.0 14.0 14.4 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.5 18.3 0.0 54.7 53.2 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.3 17.4 -0.4 43.5 44.1 14.1 14.6 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 12.4 12.9 14.0 -0.6 35.3 40.4 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.5 17.3 19.4 0.1 58.5 54.7 15.1 16.0 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------