***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 18.3 -0.2 47.5 48.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 16.1 15.7 18.2 -0.3 44.2 46.3 15.3 15.9 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 17.9 18.7 18.8 0.3 59.0 56.4 16.7 17.6 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 12.0 12.4 16.1 -0.6 39.8 41.5 12.0 13.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 13.3 14.3 16.4 -0.3 46.4 46.5 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.3 13.1 14.1 -0.4 42.7 43.3 12.3 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.1 18.2 -0.5 42.1 44.2 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.9 8.5 13.4 -0.9 33.0 34.5 8.5 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.7 16.7 -0.4 44.0 43.3 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.1 14.7 -0.5 40.9 41.4 14.4 15.8 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 14.1 13.9 15.3 -0.8 33.4 35.3 13.8 15.6 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 12.4 12.5 14.2 -0.9 31.7 33.9 12.6 13.7 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.9 15.1 15.2 0.2 57.4 55.6 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 16.4 16.2 16.7 -0.2 46.0 47.5 15.6 16.3 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 15.7 16.2 17.4 -0.8 37.9 36.0 16.1 17.3 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.6 15.7 -0.1 50.6 49.7 15.0 15.6 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.2 16.4 17.6 -0.5 45.0 43.8 15.7 16.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 14.4 13.9 13.7 -0.6 42.3 40.0 12.8 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 16.3 16.3 18.5 0.1 51.9 52.3 15.0 16.1 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.3 11.2 -0.9 34.5 33.6 9.1 10.2 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.7 18.0 -0.2 49.2 47.6 14.3 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.7 18.4 0.2 54.0 53.3 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.5 15.7 18.6 0.4 58.9 58.3 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 16.2 15.9 16.4 -0.1 49.8 48.6 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.1 17.0 -0.6 43.0 43.0 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.5 14.7 0.2 56.0 55.6 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.1 17.4 -0.6 42.7 42.4 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 13.3 14.4 16.6 -0.7 39.4 39.3 13.7 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.9 12.3 13.1 -0.5 42.0 40.6 12.0 12.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 16.5 16.2 18.6 -0.1 47.4 49.4 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------