***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 92.0 133.6 67.0 264.0 93.0 86.6 27.5 43.3 53.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 83.5 119.0 67.6 258.1 95.3 86.5 22.8 42.8 62.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 82.9 125.4 65.3 253.2 94.4 85.5 30.3 40.2 65.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 80.8 142.9 68.7 241.4 92.6 82.6 29.2 49.8 55.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 54.5 88.7 65.1 223.4 88.7 81.1 19.9 26.0 38.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 78.7 93.2 74.1 209.9 85.4 80.6 32.5 41.3 66.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 57.8 121.4 69.1 254.8 94.9 87.4 26.2 41.5 49.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 91.3 126.2 67.3 198.4 87.6 80.8 47.2 61.3 86.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 74.1 95.4 66.9 228.9 89.5 82.5 25.1 45.0 54.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 77.3 107.3 73.5 207.4 89.8 81.5 37.8 55.2 75.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 60.6 94.8 59.1 231.2 91.6 84.1 25.1 42.0 51.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 65.9 83.3 52.2 209.8 86.4 81.5 25.1 44.7 60.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 51.8 67.1 55.5 204.6 87.0 80.0 26.6 36.2 40.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 94.1 127.4 74.4 197.7 89.5 79.5 43.2 58.2 72.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 71.2 104.2 72.0 286.7 93.0 87.1 15.9 30.1 39.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 55.1 72.8 58.6 232.3 90.7 83.5 24.9 35.5 40.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 69.1 110.9 67.5 240.6 93.3 85.7 30.9 45.0 61.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 83.7 110.0 82.4 189.5 86.9 78.9 33.3 43.0 66.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 78.9 139.0 65.4 252.1 94.4 85.7 33.4 47.3 74.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 65.4 82.1 73.7 163.8 82.6 74.6 39.7 50.7 61.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 69.7 128.9 64.7 260.7 94.4 86.2 33.2 45.0 55.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 71.0 94.9 64.6 225.1 92.1 84.5 32.0 41.0 61.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 68.6 103.3 62.4 227.6 91.8 83.0 29.2 40.0 52.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 93.3 113.9 76.1 212.2 90.2 81.2 40.8 57.3 77.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 57.1 78.9 72.3 230.2 91.8 83.8 36.2 47.5 53.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 62.8 89.4 48.4 223.5 88.9 83.1 25.3 35.8 48.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 80.6 132.8 72.7 239.7 91.2 84.3 27.9 35.8 48.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 74.8 136.1 67.3 257.6 93.4 84.1 20.0 23.2 43.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 96.3 117.6 79.3 175.1 84.4 76.2 53.1 69.2 83.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 70.1 118.3 67.2 259.2 94.7 86.2 21.3 32.7 55.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------