***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.4 22.2 7.0 162.5 81.0 53.3 0.4 3.0 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.3 14.8 8.5 144.9 77.5 54.9 0.8 2.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.6 18.0 6.9 139.6 76.3 53.3 1.0 4.1 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 4.7 11.9 5.0 94.4 73.2 54.0 0.3 1.3 6.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.5 6.7 5.8 105.5 72.8 53.3 0.6 1.7 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.9 11.4 6.4 87.6 70.7 50.4 0.2 2.1 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.0 19.8 8.6 152.4 78.6 54.9 0.5 2.4 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.7 16.5 7.1 104.1 71.7 55.2 3.7 7.1 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.6 11.2 6.7 121.3 73.2 53.2 1.1 5.3 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.3 14.8 7.8 109.1 71.9 53.7 1.1 9.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.9 8.2 5.0 103.9 74.3 55.3 0.3 3.2 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 4.1 11.4 4.8 97.6 73.6 56.3 0.0 2.0 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 2.9 6.4 4.7 83.9 71.8 51.8 0.4 1.5 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.2 15.4 10.6 112.0 70.1 50.7 5.8 9.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.1 7.8 4.0 98.7 71.8 51.5 0.3 2.3 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 2.6 6.7 4.7 101.0 75.2 54.9 0.2 0.9 4.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.3 8.1 8.3 116.4 73.2 52.4 1.3 3.0 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.2 10.1 103.2 70.6 51.0 1.6 5.8 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.6 16.4 8.1 136.6 77.4 53.2 1.7 3.4 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.7 9.2 10.3 100.8 68.3 50.3 3.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.5 16.2 6.1 135.6 75.2 53.8 0.1 5.4 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.3 12.5 8.2 107.0 73.4 51.1 1.4 2.8 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.1 14.0 7.9 123.7 77.5 52.0 1.8 4.3 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.4 18.6 8.8 106.2 71.3 50.9 1.8 10.6 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.7 19.6 8.1 149.6 79.2 52.9 1.1 6.1 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.4 10.3 3.2 68.5 71.5 51.7 0.4 3.5 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.8 19.6 8.5 169.8 81.8 54.0 1.1 3.9 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.0 6.5 4.2 91.1 72.5 52.8 0.7 3.1 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.6 15.1 10.9 104.2 71.1 50.8 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.4 17.3 8.1 155.9 78.8 54.7 1.4 2.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------