***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.4 24.3 7.7 163.2 82.5 61.5 4.0 10.1 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 8.3 24.7 8.9 159.5 78.7 63.8 2.6 5.4 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.7 24.6 8.0 150.3 77.4 65.3 2.6 5.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 14.6 37.4 7.3 115.9 76.1 62.3 6.2 9.6 26.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.5 16.1 9.0 127.9 75.7 63.2 2.3 8.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 11.8 25.7 12.0 167.1 76.6 63.7 3.3 8.6 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 13.9 20.5 9.4 173.6 78.8 64.3 2.3 5.3 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 16.4 20.3 11.0 132.2 73.0 64.1 7.7 14.7 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 11.0 19.8 10.0 137.0 75.8 63.2 4.7 9.3 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 14.1 24.2 11.6 131.6 71.9 63.1 5.8 11.6 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 21.0 26.9 8.0 132.6 76.2 64.0 3.4 12.8 21.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 16.9 21.4 7.4 126.0 76.3 63.8 3.3 7.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 13.5 18.7 7.8 142.0 76.0 62.3 0.9 4.8 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 14.9 17.9 12.1 134.5 73.3 65.2 4.8 9.5 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.6 25.5 6.2 115.5 77.1 59.0 4.0 8.2 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 13.8 18.3 7.4 141.3 77.1 63.8 2.2 7.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.1 24.8 8.8 157.3 76.9 61.5 4.0 8.5 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 20.4 22.1 13.4 131.8 71.5 64.9 4.9 8.6 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 9.6 24.8 8.6 150.4 77.5 63.2 2.1 6.3 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 16.6 18.9 14.3 143.1 71.8 63.1 5.1 10.8 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.4 19.0 8.1 141.3 76.6 63.0 2.6 9.4 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.7 20.9 8.6 148.0 77.5 61.2 3.2 6.8 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 6.9 17.5 8.8 139.6 75.8 63.0 2.3 4.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 26.0 26.2 11.1 134.4 73.8 65.5 7.5 13.8 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 14.1 23.4 8.2 124.0 74.6 61.0 1.7 11.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 16.3 21.9 4.9 125.0 77.0 59.8 1.0 5.8 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 10.1 20.4 8.7 147.8 78.9 61.3 4.8 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.9 25.3 6.7 123.3 78.0 60.1 3.0 5.9 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 18.3 26.5 13.6 131.9 70.5 64.0 7.8 16.4 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 7.1 15.6 8.8 160.6 78.7 64.6 2.1 5.4 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------