***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.9 24.7 12.4 191.3 82.5 65.5 0.9 6.1 19.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 14.4 33.5 13.9 209.9 82.9 66.4 3.9 8.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 11.5 22.3 13.5 213.1 83.4 67.9 0.9 4.7 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 15.7 22.9 12.5 186.7 78.8 63.2 1.3 5.1 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 6.3 16.1 13.1 191.1 79.9 64.7 0.6 4.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.5 10.7 17.2 156.5 80.4 64.4 0.3 1.5 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 13.6 22.4 14.2 199.2 81.6 65.1 1.7 4.9 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.4 24.7 14.1 163.8 80.1 61.8 2.5 6.4 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.5 17.3 14.5 197.6 77.9 65.2 0.8 3.9 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.6 26.4 16.6 177.5 79.1 63.1 1.7 7.9 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 8.3 26.9 10.8 177.4 81.9 63.8 1.4 4.4 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.5 19.6 9.6 167.6 80.5 61.6 0.0 1.4 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 11.9 15.7 11.6 160.8 79.3 63.1 0.4 5.4 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 24.4 40.1 17.2 191.8 79.9 65.2 0.4 4.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 7.3 16.5 12.7 200.5 83.0 64.1 0.1 1.4 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 9.7 15.1 11.6 176.2 81.3 65.5 1.3 3.2 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 15.3 22.8 14.0 200.8 83.1 65.5 1.3 7.4 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 24.9 32.3 21.5 184.8 77.5 66.2 0.7 9.6 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 16.6 25.2 13.0 207.4 82.7 66.7 0.5 5.3 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 17.3 20.1 18.6 152.8 75.5 61.3 4.7 9.7 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.8 28.4 12.7 212.8 82.1 64.8 1.2 7.3 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 13.8 27.1 14.1 193.8 83.3 66.8 2.3 6.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 18.2 30.2 12.4 200.7 81.3 66.8 0.3 0.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 16.5 21.0 18.7 204.6 80.3 67.8 1.3 10.8 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 15.9 22.7 14.1 181.5 81.7 67.1 0.3 8.0 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 10.2 16.1 9.1 175.8 80.3 62.5 0.4 2.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 16.7 29.9 13.9 169.0 80.3 65.1 0.4 3.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.8 11.2 13.0 189.7 81.5 62.1 0.8 3.2 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 31.6 43.0 20.5 172.1 78.5 64.4 5.8 13.4 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 15.7 24.8 13.6 206.6 82.7 66.6 1.4 4.6 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------