***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 30.6 77.1 39.9 403.5 95.4 92.1 0.9 3.1 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 15.0 66.1 36.2 449.4 97.5 92.8 0.9 2.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 27.0 60.7 36.8 405.0 96.3 92.5 1.0 6.9 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 35.0 51.3 44.0 432.0 95.9 91.2 3.9 5.5 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 23.5 39.2 37.2 379.7 95.6 90.0 0.1 2.3 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 30.4 61.3 38.6 388.7 95.4 91.1 1.7 8.9 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 20.2 39.3 36.9 414.8 95.8 91.7 1.7 5.3 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 29.3 72.7 35.1 339.1 95.0 89.7 3.5 13.1 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 26.2 42.4 35.7 392.8 96.4 90.9 0.3 2.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 30.0 78.5 37.6 362.1 96.1 90.5 2.8 6.0 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 20.5 48.1 35.3 405.3 96.0 91.1 0.6 3.3 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 27.5 52.7 30.4 358.7 95.6 90.3 0.2 6.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 13.4 35.8 31.4 356.2 94.9 90.3 2.0 3.8 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 36.4 72.3 34.5 336.8 95.1 90.4 0.8 9.4 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 12.5 64.4 49.1 527.7 97.7 93.3 1.2 6.9 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 16.9 26.9 34.9 399.8 95.3 91.2 2.4 4.8 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 24.5 66.3 36.4 438.5 98.2 92.4 1.7 4.6 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 33.3 54.5 37.4 312.6 94.7 89.2 2.7 7.1 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 29.1 90.0 35.6 447.4 97.6 93.3 1.8 4.8 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 18.7 35.6 30.5 242.9 90.7 84.4 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 28.1 47.4 37.7 434.4 97.7 92.8 0.2 7.5 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 26.7 67.2 33.7 424.6 98.5 93.2 3.8 6.6 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 24.0 52.7 33.3 389.1 96.9 92.6 1.4 4.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 35.4 63.6 37.4 363.4 96.1 91.5 0.8 7.1 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 29.4 38.8 41.9 362.6 94.6 91.3 0.3 7.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 24.9 48.4 31.3 393.3 95.9 91.6 2.2 6.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 17.5 55.2 41.5 371.9 94.6 91.1 2.5 6.7 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 26.6 59.2 43.4 471.4 96.8 91.7 3.6 6.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 31.9 66.5 34.3 273.5 91.7 86.1 4.2 9.7 27.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 22.4 69.7 36.6 427.1 96.6 92.9 2.4 5.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------