***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 28.0 27.6 28.6 -1.7 17.9 22.3 28.4 29.4 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 27.9 27.7 29.0 -1.4 23.7 27.0 28.1 29.0 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 28.0 27.6 28.8 -1.5 20.6 24.3 27.8 29.2 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 20.7 20.1 26.6 -2.3 8.2 14.1 21.9 22.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 28.1 27.5 26.9 -1.9 13.3 19.0 29.1 29.7 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 27.2 26.6 24.9 -1.6 18.0 21.8 27.4 28.8 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 27.8 27.6 28.8 -1.5 22.5 25.4 27.7 28.9 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 16.4 16.1 25.3 -1.6 18.2 22.6 17.4 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 27.8 27.3 27.3 -1.7 16.7 21.2 28.5 29.2 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 27.5 26.9 25.9 -1.7 17.7 22.4 28.2 29.1 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 27.7 27.2 26.7 -1.6 18.3 22.4 28.1 29.2 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 27.2 26.9 26.4 -1.6 17.1 22.0 27.6 28.6 29.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 28.2 27.4 26.1 -1.7 15.4 20.7 28.6 30.1 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 27.5 27.8 27.0 -1.3 24.0 27.2 28.1 28.5 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 91 9 0 100 28.6 28.2 27.3 -2.5 8.1 12.2 29.1 30.4 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 28.9 28.3 26.5 -1.7 15.2 20.3 29.4 30.7 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 27.4 27.1 28.7 -1.2 26.4 29.0 27.4 28.4 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 26.6 26.6 25.1 -1.5 21.3 24.3 27.3 27.8 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 27.2 27.4 29.0 -1.4 24.3 27.8 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 22.6 22.6 23.2 -1.5 23.9 24.8 23.5 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 27.8 27.3 28.1 -1.8 15.2 20.3 28.1 29.4 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 27.9 27.6 28.5 -1.3 24.8 28.2 27.8 28.8 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 27.6 27.3 28.6 -1.3 24.8 27.8 27.7 28.8 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 27.1 27.3 26.9 -1.4 21.9 25.5 27.8 28.4 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 28.2 27.8 27.1 -1.9 13.8 19.2 28.6 29.5 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 27.8 26.9 26.0 -1.9 10.8 16.8 28.4 29.6 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 27.8 27.5 27.8 -1.7 18.0 22.1 27.9 29.1 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 28.6 28.1 27.0 -2.3 8.4 13.3 29.1 30.2 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 22.4 22.2 24.2 -1.4 24.9 26.2 22.3 23.6 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 27.7 27.4 29.0 -1.5 21.4 25.4 27.7 29.1 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------