***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 28.4 27.9 28.6 -1.9 26.5 28.8 28.1 29.7 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 27.9 28.1 29.0 -1.4 31.4 35.3 28.2 29.3 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 28.1 27.8 28.8 -1.7 26.7 31.4 28.0 29.0 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 20.3 20.2 26.9 -2.3 19.4 23.5 20.6 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 28.1 27.8 26.9 -2.1 23.9 26.8 28.4 30.2 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 27.1 26.5 25.2 -1.6 27.7 30.2 26.9 28.9 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 27.4 27.7 28.7 -1.5 29.1 33.7 28.0 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 15.9 16.0 25.4 -1.7 26.9 31.1 16.4 17.4 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 27.7 27.4 27.1 -1.9 25.3 28.2 27.6 29.1 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 27.3 27.1 25.9 -1.8 26.3 30.0 27.4 28.7 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 27.5 27.1 26.7 -1.7 26.7 30.2 27.7 29.7 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 27.1 26.3 26.7 -1.7 26.7 30.9 27.2 28.8 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 28.2 27.5 26.2 -1.8 25.6 29.3 28.0 30.2 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.4 27.6 26.7 -1.5 32.4 34.5 27.6 28.8 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 28.4 28.2 27.5 -2.3 17.9 22.5 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 28.7 28.2 26.6 -1.9 26.7 28.7 28.7 30.9 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 27.0 27.5 28.6 -1.3 31.8 36.7 27.6 28.6 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 26.5 26.3 25.1 -1.6 28.7 32.4 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 27.7 27.4 29.0 -1.4 32.1 36.0 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 22.4 22.1 23.3 -1.5 28.5 33.7 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 27.7 27.5 28.0 -2.0 25.2 27.4 27.9 29.6 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 27.5 28.2 28.4 -1.3 33.0 36.6 28.2 28.9 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 27.8 27.6 28.6 -1.4 31.8 36.0 27.6 28.9 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 27.2 27.0 26.7 -1.6 29.9 32.6 27.2 28.6 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 28.0 27.8 27.0 -2.1 22.6 25.8 28.2 29.7 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 27.8 27.3 26.4 -1.9 24.8 27.3 27.8 29.5 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 27.9 27.7 27.7 -1.9 25.2 28.4 28.1 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 28.0 27.9 27.2 -2.3 19.1 23.5 28.4 29.6 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 21.7 22.2 24.2 -1.5 30.4 34.4 22.4 23.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 27.7 27.5 29.0 -1.5 29.8 33.5 27.7 29.2 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------