***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 27.3 27.4 28.8 -2.0 25.2 30.1 28.0 28.6 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 26.7 27.8 29.2 -1.7 31.8 33.4 28.0 28.7 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 27.3 27.4 29.0 -1.8 30.4 32.2 27.5 28.4 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 20.4 19.7 27.1 -2.4 21.9 25.4 20.3 22.0 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 27.9 27.8 27.2 -2.0 26.7 29.4 28.0 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 26.7 26.6 25.6 -1.4 27.8 34.6 26.9 28.2 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 26.3 27.5 29.0 -1.8 30.0 32.3 27.6 28.6 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 16.3 16.6 25.9 -1.5 33.5 34.8 16.6 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 27.4 27.5 27.4 -1.9 29.3 30.9 27.6 28.1 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 27.2 27.4 26.3 -1.7 31.9 32.9 27.5 28.2 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 27.5 27.3 27.0 -1.7 30.1 33.0 27.6 28.5 29.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 26.8 26.9 27.1 -1.5 31.7 34.5 27.0 27.9 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 27.7 27.8 26.6 -1.6 27.3 33.0 28.1 28.8 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 27.5 27.5 27.2 -1.6 34.4 35.3 27.4 28.2 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 28.3 27.5 27.6 -2.5 16.2 23.3 28.2 30.3 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 28.5 28.1 26.9 -1.7 28.1 31.9 28.5 29.8 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 26.0 27.2 28.8 -1.7 30.7 34.0 27.2 28.2 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 26.6 26.3 25.5 -1.6 33.9 34.9 26.3 27.7 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 26.6 27.4 29.3 -1.7 32.6 34.3 27.5 28.4 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 22.3 22.8 23.9 -1.3 35.5 37.2 22.6 23.5 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 27.5 27.1 28.3 -2.0 26.4 30.1 27.4 28.5 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 26.6 27.8 28.7 -1.7 30.9 33.8 27.8 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 26.8 27.7 28.9 -1.6 33.7 35.1 27.6 28.0 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 26.9 27.1 27.1 -1.6 33.9 34.3 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 27.8 27.5 27.3 -2.2 22.8 27.7 27.7 28.9 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 27.4 27.6 26.8 -1.6 27.7 32.2 27.9 28.9 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 26.9 26.9 28.0 -2.0 24.2 29.6 27.8 28.4 30.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 28.1 27.2 27.4 -2.4 20.7 25.4 28.5 30.1 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 21.8 22.3 24.7 -1.4 35.5 36.8 22.2 22.8 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 26.6 27.8 29.2 -1.8 31.2 32.7 27.8 28.5 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------