***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 28.0 29.0 29.0 -1.5 31.7 34.1 29.1 30.2 31.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 28.3 29.0 29.3 -1.3 36.3 36.7 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.6 28.9 29.2 -1.3 33.3 35.8 28.9 29.6 31.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 20.4 19.7 27.2 -2.0 22.3 25.9 21.1 23.3 25.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 28.0 28.1 27.4 -1.6 27.3 31.9 28.6 30.9 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 26.8 26.2 25.4 -1.4 32.0 32.9 26.4 29.0 30.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 28.0 28.6 29.2 -1.3 33.9 36.3 28.5 30.2 31.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 16.3 16.8 26.1 -1.1 38.4 37.3 16.6 17.9 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 27.8 28.4 27.8 -1.3 31.9 34.6 28.4 29.9 31.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 27.7 28.0 26.6 -1.2 37.3 36.5 27.7 29.7 31.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 27.6 28.0 27.2 -1.2 31.9 35.5 28.0 30.1 31.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 26.9 27.7 27.1 -1.2 34.1 35.9 27.6 29.0 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 28.1 27.0 26.4 -1.5 28.0 32.3 28.3 30.4 31.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.3 27.7 -0.8 42.7 41.6 28.0 29.6 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 27.8 27.1 27.5 -2.4 17.1 22.4 28.7 30.7 32.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 28.6 28.1 26.9 -1.5 29.0 32.6 28.5 30.8 32.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 27.6 28.6 29.1 -1.1 39.0 38.6 28.4 29.6 30.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 29.1 27.3 25.9 -1.0 41.1 40.2 27.2 28.5 30.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.6 29.4 -1.2 37.3 37.5 28.3 29.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 25.2 23.7 24.1 -0.9 42.2 41.3 22.7 24.8 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 27.4 28.5 28.5 -1.5 29.0 33.5 28.5 29.9 32.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 30.3 29.1 29.0 -1.1 38.0 38.2 28.9 30.0 30.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.9 28.6 29.2 -1.0 38.5 39.0 28.3 29.5 31.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 29.7 28.5 27.5 -1.0 41.0 40.0 27.7 29.2 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 28.0 26.9 27.5 -1.7 25.7 30.8 28.9 30.7 31.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 27.3 26.6 26.4 -1.8 21.4 27.6 27.2 29.8 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 27.4 27.6 28.2 -1.5 30.3 33.5 28.3 29.5 31.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 27.9 27.8 27.4 -2.1 20.6 24.9 28.4 30.5 32.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.6 23.5 25.1 -0.8 42.9 42.5 22.3 24.2 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 27.6 29.0 29.4 -1.4 33.6 35.5 29.0 29.9 31.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------