***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 27.0 27.3 28.1 -1.3 33.6 35.0 27.2 28.3 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 28.8 27.5 28.3 -1.2 35.4 36.6 27.4 28.3 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.2 27.5 28.1 -1.4 34.9 34.9 27.5 28.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 20.1 19.9 25.2 -2.4 19.6 21.4 21.5 22.0 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 27.0 27.9 26.1 -1.9 27.4 27.7 28.2 29.8 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 26.0 26.1 23.6 -2.0 23.7 24.8 27.0 28.6 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 28.7 27.5 28.2 -1.3 36.3 35.8 27.2 28.2 30.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 16.0 16.6 23.8 -2.1 24.7 25.1 16.9 17.6 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 27.0 27.6 27.0 -1.7 30.6 30.5 27.7 28.7 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 26.7 27.7 24.8 -1.9 28.4 28.3 28.0 28.7 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 26.9 27.6 25.8 -1.8 28.5 28.5 28.1 29.4 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 26.4 26.8 25.0 -2.0 24.9 25.5 27.1 28.4 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 27.7 27.5 25.1 -1.9 25.8 27.6 28.0 29.9 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 26.8 27.2 26.3 -1.5 33.0 33.1 27.2 28.2 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 27.9 27.6 26.7 -2.7 14.6 17.0 29.0 30.0 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 27.9 28.1 25.6 -1.9 26.8 26.9 29.1 30.7 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 28.3 27.4 28.1 -0.9 38.0 39.6 26.9 27.9 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 26.5 26.7 23.8 -1.9 29.1 29.2 26.9 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 28.8 27.0 28.3 -1.2 35.0 36.3 27.0 28.1 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 22.2 22.5 21.6 -2.2 25.0 24.5 22.8 23.9 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 27.2 27.8 27.7 -1.7 30.7 31.3 28.0 28.7 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 28.6 27.5 27.9 -1.1 36.5 36.9 27.1 28.0 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.6 27.5 27.9 -1.4 32.8 34.7 27.5 27.8 30.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 26.8 27.0 26.0 -1.6 32.4 32.8 27.0 27.7 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 27.2 27.5 26.7 -1.6 30.2 31.3 27.9 29.1 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 26.9 26.9 24.5 -2.3 19.5 21.4 28.0 29.4 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 28.9 27.3 27.5 -1.3 34.9 35.1 26.9 28.2 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 27.9 27.8 25.8 -2.6 16.7 18.2 28.9 30.3 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 21.7 21.7 22.9 -1.9 28.4 28.7 22.1 23.2 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 28.8 27.4 28.3 -1.3 35.7 35.0 27.3 28.2 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------