***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 15.5 15.5 18.5 -0.5 35.1 37.0 15.5 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.6 18.7 -0.3 38.9 41.2 15.4 15.7 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.7 18.4 -0.5 35.0 36.8 17.7 18.0 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 12.5 12.6 16.1 -1.0 20.4 22.6 13.1 13.3 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 13.4 13.6 16.0 -0.8 23.6 25.6 14.0 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 12.6 12.8 14.5 -0.9 22.1 24.7 12.9 13.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.4 15.9 18.7 -0.5 35.9 37.9 15.7 16.3 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 8.5 8.6 14.3 -0.8 26.7 27.9 8.7 8.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 14.8 15.1 16.4 -0.7 28.5 29.7 15.3 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 14.6 15.1 14.8 -0.7 28.6 29.4 15.2 15.6 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 14.2 14.5 15.8 -0.7 29.1 29.6 14.7 15.3 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 12.5 12.4 15.2 -0.8 25.6 27.2 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 13.5 13.5 14.8 -0.8 21.1 24.8 14.0 14.5 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.4 15.8 16.6 -0.5 35.7 36.2 15.7 16.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 15.5 15.1 16.9 -1.2 13.3 19.2 16.4 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 15.2 15.2 15.5 -0.8 24.1 25.5 15.6 16.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.4 18.5 -0.1 48.4 48.6 16.1 16.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 13.1 13.1 14.1 -0.7 29.1 30.1 13.2 14.0 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 18.6 -0.3 40.3 42.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 9.0 9.1 12.5 -0.7 27.2 29.5 9.5 10.0 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 14.7 15.0 17.6 -0.7 27.9 30.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.2 18.3 -0.2 42.5 44.1 14.8 15.4 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.4 14.8 18.2 -0.4 37.6 40.2 14.8 15.2 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 15.4 15.6 16.3 -0.6 32.6 33.6 15.6 16.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 14.9 14.7 16.8 -0.7 27.2 31.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 13.8 13.6 14.7 -0.9 15.6 21.1 14.3 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 15.2 15.5 17.7 -0.5 34.3 36.5 15.4 16.0 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 13.3 13.1 16.5 -1.2 14.6 19.1 14.1 14.4 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 12.4 12.7 13.6 -0.7 27.4 29.6 12.8 13.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 15.5 15.8 18.8 -0.5 35.6 38.1 15.7 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------