***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 14.8 14.6 17.9 -1.3 25.2 28.6 14.9 15.6 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 14.5 14.8 18.1 -1.0 26.3 32.0 14.9 15.3 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 17.1 16.7 17.8 -1.2 23.5 28.3 17.1 18.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 12.2 12.2 15.5 -1.7 21.1 22.1 12.8 13.6 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 12.9 13.1 15.4 -1.4 22.4 24.7 13.5 13.8 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 12.3 12.2 14.2 -1.1 24.1 28.8 12.9 13.5 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 15.1 14.9 18.1 -1.1 25.8 30.4 15.0 15.8 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 7.8 7.6 13.9 -1.3 21.4 26.0 8.1 8.9 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 14.1 13.8 15.6 -1.3 21.2 25.7 14.9 15.5 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 13.9 14.0 14.2 -1.3 21.2 25.7 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 13.7 13.6 15.2 -1.2 25.2 27.7 14.5 14.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 12.0 12.2 14.9 -1.3 22.5 26.6 12.7 13.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 13.0 13.0 14.4 -1.1 24.1 28.3 13.4 14.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 14.8 14.7 15.8 -1.2 21.9 27.8 15.3 15.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 15.0 14.8 16.1 -1.8 20.2 21.4 15.9 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 14.8 14.6 15.1 -1.3 23.7 27.2 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 15.4 15.5 17.7 -0.8 29.2 34.6 15.8 16.4 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 12.0 11.7 13.6 -1.2 23.0 26.8 12.7 13.1 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 14.8 14.9 18.0 -1.0 26.5 32.1 15.2 15.6 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 8.6 8.8 12.3 -1.1 25.6 29.1 8.9 9.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 14.1 14.0 16.8 -1.4 21.1 25.5 14.2 14.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 14.2 14.4 17.5 -0.9 28.6 32.6 14.5 14.9 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 14.2 14.3 17.6 -1.1 26.3 30.9 14.5 15.0 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 14.3 13.9 15.6 -1.2 21.3 27.0 15.4 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 13.9 13.5 16.1 -1.4 23.3 26.3 14.6 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 13.7 13.4 14.4 -1.3 17.6 24.6 14.0 14.9 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 14.4 14.8 17.0 -1.3 25.5 28.3 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 12.6 12.4 15.9 -1.7 20.8 21.6 13.4 13.8 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 12.1 11.8 13.1 -1.1 24.7 28.6 12.1 13.1 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 14.9 14.9 18.2 -1.1 25.5 30.5 15.1 15.8 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------