***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 15.2 15.6 18.4 -0.8 36.7 38.6 15.5 16.6 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 14.6 15.7 18.7 -0.7 37.5 40.2 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 17.1 17.8 18.4 -0.8 37.6 38.3 17.3 18.4 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 12.5 12.2 16.2 -1.1 25.2 31.7 12.4 13.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 13.6 13.6 16.1 -0.9 30.4 35.0 13.9 15.1 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.3 14.9 -0.8 34.5 38.7 13.3 13.9 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 14.9 15.9 18.7 -0.8 37.0 39.2 15.8 16.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.3 8.7 14.6 -0.9 32.9 35.7 8.7 9.3 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.7 15.7 16.4 -0.9 33.6 36.0 15.7 16.2 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 14.7 15.5 14.9 -0.9 31.8 35.6 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 14.4 15.0 15.9 -0.8 33.9 38.1 14.9 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 12.7 13.2 15.6 -0.8 31.5 36.6 13.2 13.9 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 13.9 14.2 15.1 -0.7 33.9 39.2 14.1 15.2 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 15.5 16.1 16.5 -0.8 33.1 37.7 16.1 17.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 15.8 15.6 16.8 -1.3 21.9 29.2 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 15.4 16.0 15.8 -0.7 31.9 38.1 16.1 16.4 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 15.3 16.6 18.3 -0.5 41.3 43.2 16.1 17.1 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 13.3 13.8 14.2 -0.9 33.1 36.2 13.8 14.7 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 14.7 16.2 18.6 -0.7 38.9 40.5 15.9 16.4 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 9.3 9.5 13.0 -0.8 37.2 38.2 9.0 10.5 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 14.9 15.3 17.5 -0.9 36.4 36.2 15.1 15.8 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 14.3 15.7 18.1 -0.7 38.8 40.8 15.3 16.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 14.4 15.3 18.2 -0.7 37.2 39.6 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 15.4 15.9 16.3 -0.8 33.1 37.2 15.9 16.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 14.7 15.4 16.7 -0.9 34.1 36.4 15.2 16.1 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 14.0 14.5 15.2 -0.7 33.6 39.1 14.5 14.9 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 14.6 15.4 17.5 -0.8 37.2 38.9 15.2 15.9 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 13.8 13.7 16.7 -1.2 23.3 30.9 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.4 12.4 13.8 -0.9 34.0 36.2 12.3 13.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 14.7 16.1 18.8 -0.8 36.2 39.0 15.9 16.4 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------