***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 16.2 15.1 18.8 -0.5 39.5 41.2 14.7 16.0 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.1 15.3 19.1 -0.3 44.7 45.6 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.5 17.0 18.6 -0.5 37.3 40.7 16.9 18.2 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 12.2 11.7 16.1 -1.3 21.7 25.9 12.7 14.1 15.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 13.3 13.2 16.1 -1.0 28.9 30.9 13.7 14.6 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 12.3 12.4 14.6 -1.1 23.8 27.7 12.6 13.4 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.6 15.9 19.0 -0.4 43.5 43.9 15.2 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.2 14.5 -0.7 35.6 35.5 8.1 9.1 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.6 14.6 16.4 -0.8 32.7 33.6 14.7 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.0 14.9 -0.8 34.4 35.1 14.8 15.8 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.7 15.8 -0.8 33.1 34.1 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.8 12.5 15.4 -0.9 31.5 32.4 12.5 13.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 13.4 13.4 14.8 -1.1 24.7 28.2 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.5 15.7 16.8 -0.4 38.8 41.5 15.5 16.2 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 15.7 15.5 16.6 -1.6 18.0 22.1 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 15.0 14.4 15.5 -1.0 26.5 29.4 15.2 16.1 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.7 18.8 0.0 53.1 52.1 15.7 16.5 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.6 14.3 -0.7 36.3 35.7 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 16.1 15.6 19.0 -0.3 44.4 45.9 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.2 9.6 12.8 -0.7 37.0 37.4 9.3 10.5 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.1 17.7 -0.7 34.9 35.8 14.9 15.7 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.5 18.7 -0.1 52.3 51.1 14.7 15.3 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.2 18.5 -0.3 40.7 44.0 14.6 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.5 16.4 -0.6 36.1 38.7 15.5 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.6 14.5 16.9 -0.8 31.4 35.0 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 13.6 13.4 14.9 -1.1 25.2 28.8 14.1 14.6 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.8 14.5 17.9 -0.6 37.5 39.6 14.2 15.5 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 13.3 13.0 16.4 -1.5 18.6 23.2 14.0 14.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 12.6 13.8 -0.7 36.5 36.5 12.5 13.4 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.2 15.5 19.1 -0.5 41.4 43.1 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------