***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 16.2 16.4 19.1 0.6 59.4 60.1 15.5 16.1 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 16.1 16.5 19.1 0.8 60.0 62.1 14.9 16.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 97 3 100 17.8 18.6 18.9 0.6 58.6 59.3 16.5 17.8 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 99 1 100 13.4 13.8 16.5 0.0 57.6 55.8 12.0 13.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 97 3 100 14.2 14.7 16.6 0.0 56.6 54.9 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.3 12.5 14.3 -0.5 36.9 39.2 12.2 13.2 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 95 5 100 16.4 16.5 19.1 0.5 57.5 58.6 15.1 16.3 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 8.7 8.6 14.3 -0.1 50.1 48.7 8.0 8.6 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 98 2 100 15.8 16.1 17.3 0.3 60.4 58.8 14.9 15.7 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 95 5 100 15.5 15.9 15.3 0.2 57.2 55.0 14.5 15.5 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 98 2 100 15.1 15.5 16.1 0.0 56.8 54.4 14.0 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 96 4 100 13.4 13.3 15.1 -0.1 49.8 49.3 12.4 13.4 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 14.7 14.1 14.9 -0.3 45.8 45.3 13.4 14.6 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 16.0 16.6 17.1 0.5 59.2 60.1 15.3 16.0 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 16.9 17.1 17.9 -0.2 53.8 52.2 16.2 16.8 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 15.6 15.5 15.8 -0.2 49.5 48.2 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 16.6 17.8 19.0 1.1 66.7 67.2 15.7 16.4 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 93 7 100 13.8 14.1 14.3 0.2 55.3 55.1 12.8 13.7 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 16.1 16.4 19.0 0.8 59.9 61.9 14.8 16.0 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 9.8 9.5 12.0 -0.2 46.6 46.3 8.8 9.7 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 98 2 100 15.5 16.0 18.3 0.2 58.8 57.6 14.4 15.5 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 15.7 16.0 18.8 0.8 63.2 63.2 14.8 15.6 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 96 4 100 15.2 15.6 18.6 0.6 58.7 59.7 14.1 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 95 5 100 15.8 16.2 16.7 0.3 57.5 57.6 14.9 15.8 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 97 3 100 15.1 15.4 17.7 0.3 58.6 58.1 14.7 15.0 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.0 14.2 -0.5 39.0 38.6 13.8 14.2 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 96 4 100 15.4 16.2 18.3 0.5 59.5 59.9 14.6 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 14.5 14.5 16.9 -0.3 50.9 48.8 13.4 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 12.9 12.8 13.6 -0.1 52.3 50.4 11.7 12.6 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 96 4 100 16.3 16.5 19.2 0.6 57.3 58.9 15.2 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------