***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 48.4 53.0 40.4 105.5 66.1 57.3 27.4 37.7 53.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 50.7 59.6 40.4 109.1 66.3 53.0 25.2 40.9 58.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 48.7 53.8 41.3 103.7 63.1 55.7 30.6 41.1 56.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 53.6 55.6 35.3 97.2 61.6 56.0 44.0 49.8 55.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 32.3 41.7 34.4 96.6 62.7 56.4 22.2 28.5 46.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 52.0 50.0 40.6 98.9 60.3 53.1 32.5 44.0 66.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 27.2 49.8 40.6 108.3 66.7 54.5 28.0 39.7 49.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 70.9 82.1 40.9 96.4 60.0 52.7 51.8 64.9 86.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 49.2 49.5 38.9 98.0 62.9 56.8 28.1 45.0 55.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 59.8 72.3 44.2 96.1 61.4 53.6 44.0 55.2 74.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 48.7 52.4 33.6 103.5 62.5 57.6 27.1 45.5 54.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 50.1 60.5 31.9 100.6 62.4 55.2 28.2 44.8 61.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 40.8 45.4 32.1 99.9 63.2 55.5 28.0 36.2 46.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 67.6 71.6 53.6 101.1 62.5 54.1 48.8 59.7 72.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 37.7 39.3 28.8 97.3 62.0 56.2 15.9 30.4 42.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 40.4 39.3 31.1 97.6 60.1 54.1 24.9 35.6 51.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 55.1 64.5 40.6 111.0 67.2 55.5 28.4 50.4 61.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 55.9 55.8 51.1 93.7 58.2 51.0 37.5 46.4 65.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 55.3 68.0 40.9 107.3 65.1 53.2 35.1 48.0 69.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 55.0 52.5 50.0 94.2 55.8 50.4 39.9 49.8 61.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 46.3 52.1 39.6 104.4 63.8 58.5 33.2 42.0 53.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 49.1 61.0 40.6 106.8 65.1 54.6 31.7 41.0 61.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 46.1 49.6 42.7 104.9 65.0 54.3 29.2 39.1 49.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 67.5 72.4 48.8 99.7 61.8 54.4 38.9 62.0 77.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 47.5 54.1 43.3 108.7 65.7 59.4 37.0 45.7 54.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 41.5 46.2 28.6 107.3 64.2 57.4 25.3 37.3 48.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 43.0 48.0 44.1 107.9 65.5 57.8 27.1 35.6 48.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 35.5 39.9 31.7 94.9 61.2 55.0 20.3 27.0 43.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 74.6 72.7 55.2 97.5 58.7 52.6 58.6 67.2 83.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 24.8 54.9 40.7 106.1 63.9 53.1 22.2 37.4 56.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------