***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.3 12.0 7.7 100.6 70.8 50.4 1.0 2.8 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.1 12.5 7.6 106.4 71.3 46.6 0.6 2.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 1.9 18.5 7.4 93.8 71.0 48.6 0.9 3.9 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 1.9 17.7 8.8 138.7 78.0 52.9 0.8 4.2 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.2 11.9 8.4 134.6 75.9 53.2 0.8 2.6 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.2 24.7 11.7 146.5 75.5 48.8 1.9 6.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.3 13.6 8.5 107.6 72.4 48.2 0.8 2.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.9 15.1 8.7 111.4 67.4 47.8 4.4 7.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.1 14.0 8.7 118.8 71.5 52.8 0.8 6.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.7 15.3 9.6 110.0 68.3 48.8 2.4 10.0 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.9 14.0 7.2 134.8 74.9 52.6 0.8 4.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.3 11.7 7.4 138.0 75.0 51.1 0.3 3.1 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 1.9 8.7 9.6 161.8 78.0 49.7 0.9 4.3 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.0 17.4 11.9 110.3 71.4 46.2 5.4 11.9 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.1 15.4 8.6 170.0 83.8 50.5 0.6 2.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 1.1 9.3 8.4 155.8 79.2 50.2 0.5 2.7 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.5 7.6 8.3 105.2 71.6 44.4 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.2 11.0 11.6 104.4 65.0 47.3 2.0 7.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.3 14.9 7.5 104.1 71.3 45.9 1.9 3.2 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.9 10.9 94.2 61.4 46.7 4.0 4.8 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.8 19.0 8.6 120.3 73.2 53.4 0.9 7.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.8 11.2 9.0 113.7 72.2 48.4 1.6 4.1 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.9 13.2 7.8 101.0 72.2 45.6 1.0 4.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.3 13.8 10.8 105.9 68.3 48.1 3.8 10.7 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.9 20.0 10.0 133.6 76.9 52.0 2.9 8.4 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.2 16.9 8.5 162.9 79.6 50.6 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.4 11.7 9.1 113.9 73.7 51.0 1.5 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.6 13.5 8.9 158.6 80.9 50.9 1.2 3.6 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.9 13.7 12.5 105.3 65.4 47.5 4.6 8.4 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.5 9.0 7.5 101.3 71.5 47.3 1.4 3.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------