***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 5.1 13.0 7.1 86.3 67.5 48.8 3.8 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 22.3 8.1 106.8 68.2 48.1 2.4 6.3 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.5 15.1 8.6 105.9 69.7 51.4 2.0 5.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.2 23.0 5.6 70.4 65.1 45.6 6.2 9.3 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.1 12.8 5.7 75.6 64.9 47.8 3.2 7.5 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.0 9.9 5.2 56.6 56.8 41.8 0.2 6.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.8 14.9 7.6 97.3 65.5 48.3 1.7 11.2 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.5 19.7 8.0 90.6 63.5 47.1 10.3 15.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.9 13.1 6.9 83.4 62.7 50.3 5.2 9.8 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.6 17.9 8.6 89.3 62.9 48.2 5.8 10.3 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 18.6 5.7 84.9 65.7 48.6 3.4 8.8 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.1 16.6 6.1 88.1 66.7 48.4 3.3 7.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 1.7 9.1 5.2 70.7 68.5 44.7 0.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.1 14.5 10.5 98.5 64.9 51.2 1.6 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 15.7 3.8 58.9 65.2 46.3 4.0 8.2 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.6 10.4 4.8 68.6 65.1 45.0 2.9 6.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.8 25.7 7.4 97.7 66.4 48.0 2.9 8.3 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.5 16.8 10.3 87.1 61.4 46.6 6.0 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.5 25.9 8.2 108.3 68.7 48.9 1.2 5.8 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 18.5 10.1 88.2 62.3 48.0 4.5 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.3 7.0 91.0 65.9 50.4 0.9 9.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.4 12.2 7.0 82.3 63.3 47.5 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.4 13.2 8.6 110.7 69.8 53.1 2.3 4.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.4 18.2 10.0 98.3 64.7 50.1 7.1 13.0 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.7 16.0 6.7 79.0 66.7 47.7 2.1 10.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.1 11.1 4.0 69.9 65.7 45.6 1.0 5.1 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.0 12.5 7.1 80.9 65.2 47.3 3.5 7.8 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.9 11.3 4.9 65.4 65.3 46.2 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.5 27.0 10.9 87.0 61.3 48.1 6.3 15.8 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.2 13.6 8.3 102.6 68.5 48.5 1.4 4.6 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------