***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.7 21.7 11.5 111.2 70.5 54.4 0.9 3.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 7.6 13.1 11.8 106.0 67.9 56.4 2.1 5.5 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.5 9.1 12.8 106.9 68.8 58.3 0.7 4.5 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 7.4 13.2 9.1 82.2 64.3 53.7 1.0 4.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 6.1 13.9 10.3 93.2 68.3 58.9 0.6 4.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.2 6.9 10.2 75.8 60.3 48.5 0.2 3.9 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.6 6.6 11.7 107.5 68.6 56.5 0.9 2.0 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.2 18.1 9.7 80.3 61.5 51.8 2.0 10.9 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 5.4 10.4 11.4 93.0 68.3 59.1 0.3 3.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.1 10.3 10.9 84.0 64.1 55.2 2.1 7.9 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 8.8 17.8 10.6 99.5 70.0 59.6 1.1 5.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.6 8.4 83.3 63.9 52.4 0.5 2.8 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 8.1 14.7 8.1 79.8 65.3 55.2 0.8 5.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 10.0 14.5 14.1 91.9 65.7 56.9 0.9 4.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 4.9 7.6 7.9 82.6 67.4 54.3 0.2 3.0 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.4 8.8 7.8 74.5 63.2 50.6 1.3 3.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 7.6 10.2 12.1 115.7 69.6 56.9 0.4 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 14.9 14.9 12.6 82.1 60.5 52.5 0.6 10.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 7.0 16.7 11.5 98.6 66.3 55.6 0.1 3.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 12.3 17.8 13.4 95.2 63.0 55.6 5.5 9.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 9.9 20.1 10.4 91.1 66.3 56.8 2.3 6.3 19.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 8.9 11.5 11.6 106.8 67.8 56.4 0.5 6.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 6.3 13.3 11.6 90.4 65.2 56.4 0.2 1.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 12.4 14.2 13.3 91.7 65.1 56.6 2.4 10.8 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.7 18.2 12.9 110.4 71.8 58.5 0.3 3.6 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 6.7 13.3 8.6 93.9 67.2 57.2 1.6 4.3 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.6 16.4 13.1 113.2 71.0 56.9 0.4 2.8 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.4 6.8 7.1 68.1 62.6 50.3 0.8 4.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 18.7 22.2 15.0 93.7 61.9 55.1 6.3 11.8 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 4.7 7.4 12.0 106.0 67.9 55.5 1.4 2.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------