***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 49 51 100 17.0 21.7 14.1 117.0 73.0 66.4 1.1 4.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 10.8 8.4 12.9 115.7 72.3 64.5 0.9 2.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 8.8 22.8 12.5 105.2 70.1 63.5 1.4 7.1 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 10.2 23.9 11.8 107.4 70.1 65.1 4.2 6.7 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 5.5 12.8 10.0 92.9 67.7 63.2 0.4 2.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 14.9 17.1 13.5 129.5 71.0 66.4 0.7 7.6 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 48 52 100 12.6 17.3 12.8 117.4 73.6 66.0 1.7 5.3 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 12.0 20.9 14.5 107.6 66.4 62.0 2.5 9.9 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 6.3 17.6 11.9 100.4 69.3 64.6 0.5 3.8 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 13.6 25.6 15.0 102.9 66.0 62.7 3.1 11.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 6.4 12.1 10.0 102.9 67.7 63.8 0.8 4.3 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 8.9 13.7 10.1 106.4 67.7 62.8 0.2 6.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 4.1 9.7 9.2 106.1 71.2 66.3 0.9 2.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 12.4 30.1 17.1 105.3 66.5 61.9 1.8 9.4 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 46 54 100 7.2 10.6 8.5 98.3 73.0 66.9 0.8 2.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 47 53 100 9.5 8.2 10.1 111.7 69.5 65.1 2.1 4.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 46 54 100 17.5 25.7 12.9 120.4 74.3 66.5 1.7 4.6 20.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 11.6 20.2 16.5 102.6 64.0 60.7 4.4 8.6 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 9.7 17.6 13.6 117.8 72.0 63.8 2.5 7.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 8.6 11.2 15.6 97.7 61.8 57.6 2.9 7.1 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 7.1 25.5 13.6 116.4 73.2 65.3 0.5 4.7 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 8.9 25.5 13.0 122.0 74.9 64.9 3.2 5.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 7.3 21.5 14.6 118.7 70.0 63.2 1.6 5.4 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 11.3 26.6 14.8 104.7 67.6 62.9 0.6 7.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 18.5 16.6 13.8 112.8 73.3 67.2 1.0 4.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 7.7 17.5 7.5 113.5 71.1 62.7 0.1 5.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 14.2 18.4 14.7 118.6 73.1 66.6 3.0 7.0 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 47 53 100 18.5 19.6 10.8 108.6 71.1 66.5 2.2 5.0 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 15.6 24.2 16.8 103.8 64.6 60.4 4.2 12.3 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 10.5 19.2 12.8 111.8 71.2 64.1 3.0 8.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------