***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 28.2 28.7 30.1 -0.7 44.4 43.4 28.0 29.1 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 27.5 28.7 29.9 -0.7 41.3 43.1 28.4 29.2 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 29.7 28.3 30.3 -0.7 41.2 42.9 27.8 28.7 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.9 22.2 28.7 -0.1 47.4 49.6 20.8 22.2 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 30.3 28.8 28.4 -0.8 39.7 41.3 28.5 29.4 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.2 27.5 25.8 -0.7 38.0 41.2 27.0 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 29.5 28.8 30.2 -0.3 48.3 47.5 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.2 26.7 -1.0 37.2 39.3 17.2 17.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.3 28.4 28.5 -0.8 40.2 42.3 28.0 28.6 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.0 27.2 -0.7 41.0 42.3 27.6 28.6 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.7 28.5 28.1 -1.1 37.4 38.6 28.2 28.9 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 29.0 27.5 28.1 -1.2 35.0 37.7 27.3 28.5 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 28.1 28.6 27.0 -1.3 30.7 35.5 28.6 29.7 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.1 27.9 28.1 -0.4 44.2 45.6 27.6 28.3 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.8 30.5 30.3 0.2 53.7 52.6 29.2 30.3 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 31.0 29.3 27.9 -1.0 36.0 39.4 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 26.6 27.9 29.9 -0.4 42.7 46.0 27.7 28.3 29.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.1 27.1 26.5 -0.6 40.9 43.2 26.6 27.4 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.1 30.0 -0.8 40.3 42.1 27.5 28.6 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.2 23.9 -0.9 37.3 39.5 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.8 28.3 29.3 -0.8 40.3 42.3 27.8 29.1 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.0 30.1 -0.2 49.4 49.0 28.0 29.0 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.1 30.1 -0.8 41.2 42.9 27.7 28.3 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 28.7 27.5 28.1 -0.6 42.0 43.7 27.3 28.1 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 28.1 29.0 28.3 -0.7 43.5 43.3 28.0 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 28.0 27.8 28.1 -1.0 31.7 38.0 28.0 29.6 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 29.4 28.4 29.1 -0.6 45.4 44.6 28.0 28.7 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.7 30.2 29.3 0.0 49.0 50.7 29.1 30.3 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.7 22.9 25.3 -0.8 39.5 41.2 22.4 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 27.3 28.4 30.0 -0.7 42.1 43.5 27.8 28.8 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------