***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 27.2 28.6 28.9 -1.5 31.3 34.6 28.7 29.6 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 27.7 27.7 28.8 -1.7 30.5 34.1 28.1 29.6 31.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 27.1 26.9 28.9 -1.8 28.9 33.0 27.8 29.6 30.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 20.4 21.5 26.9 -1.0 38.4 40.1 20.4 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 27.4 27.0 27.3 -1.7 30.9 33.7 27.7 30.0 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 26.3 26.3 25.1 -1.3 33.6 36.6 26.2 28.6 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.3 29.2 -1.1 37.7 39.1 27.9 29.9 30.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 15.5 16.1 25.5 -1.6 32.4 34.7 16.1 17.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 27.3 27.0 27.9 -1.5 32.3 35.1 27.3 29.5 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.1 27.2 26.2 -1.4 34.2 36.3 27.1 28.9 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 27.0 26.8 27.5 -1.8 30.8 32.5 26.9 29.4 31.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 26.5 26.4 27.0 -1.7 30.8 33.2 26.4 28.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 26.7 26.3 26.7 -2.1 25.4 28.9 27.5 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.8 27.8 27.5 -1.1 38.4 39.5 27.1 29.2 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 28.2 29.0 29.5 -1.0 35.9 39.5 28.4 30.3 32.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 27.6 27.1 27.1 -1.8 29.7 32.1 27.7 30.3 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 27.5 28.0 28.8 -1.3 36.1 38.0 27.5 29.6 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.5 26.1 25.3 -1.3 35.5 37.4 26.0 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 26.9 26.9 28.8 -1.8 30.2 33.0 27.5 29.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 24.5 22.1 23.0 -1.5 33.9 36.0 22.0 23.9 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 27.2 27.1 28.6 -1.5 31.3 35.1 27.6 29.5 31.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 30.3 29.0 29.0 -1.0 39.4 40.6 28.0 29.9 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 27.1 27.4 29.0 -1.6 33.8 34.9 27.3 28.9 30.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 29.5 26.8 27.3 -1.4 34.9 36.8 26.7 29.0 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.6 27.8 27.4 -1.7 31.8 33.5 28.1 30.5 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 27.2 26.7 26.7 -1.7 29.7 32.9 27.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 27.2 27.5 28.1 -1.5 33.5 35.2 27.5 29.5 30.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 28.2 28.5 28.0 -1.0 37.6 40.3 27.9 30.4 32.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 24.2 21.2 24.3 -1.4 34.4 36.4 21.2 23.7 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 27.1 27.3 28.9 -1.7 29.6 34.0 27.8 29.7 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------