***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 26.4 27.3 27.4 -2.7 22.2 23.3 27.6 29.4 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 26.4 26.1 27.2 -3.2 16.0 18.6 27.8 28.5 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 26.6 26.2 27.2 -3.3 17.7 19.6 27.8 29.3 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 20.8 21.3 24.9 -2.2 29.8 27.5 21.4 22.3 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 28.0 27.6 25.8 -2.8 23.7 23.8 28.1 30.1 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 27.0 26.4 23.6 -2.3 22.3 24.4 27.3 28.8 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 26.3 26.5 27.5 -2.6 21.6 24.3 27.6 28.5 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 16.5 16.5 23.7 -2.7 23.6 24.1 16.7 18.0 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 27.8 27.3 26.7 -2.7 25.6 24.9 27.5 29.5 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 27.6 27.1 24.6 -2.6 25.6 25.6 27.8 29.3 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 27.3 27.4 26.1 -3.1 20.8 21.6 27.8 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 26.5 26.5 25.1 -2.9 21.0 21.6 27.5 28.3 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 90 10 0 100 27.9 27.5 25.6 -3.3 14.4 15.6 28.3 30.1 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 27.1 27.3 26.4 -2.2 29.1 28.7 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 28.6 28.4 27.8 -2.8 17.3 20.1 29.3 30.5 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 28.5 28.2 25.7 -3.1 17.1 18.8 28.9 30.5 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 25.9 25.6 27.1 -2.8 20.3 22.5 27.4 27.9 30.3 29 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 26.7 26.8 23.6 -2.5 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.4 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 25.9 25.5 27.1 -3.3 16.4 18.3 27.7 28.2 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 22.7 22.4 21.7 -2.3 26.9 27.2 23.1 24.3 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 27.5 27.1 27.3 -2.8 22.4 23.9 27.4 29.5 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 26.9 26.5 27.4 -2.3 25.3 27.0 27.2 28.3 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 26.5 26.7 27.3 -3.1 20.9 21.3 27.7 28.4 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 26.8 26.7 26.1 -2.6 24.1 25.2 27.1 28.7 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 27.1 27.2 26.2 -2.9 22.0 22.8 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 27.5 27.2 24.6 -3.1 15.8 18.1 28.5 29.9 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 26.4 26.2 26.8 -2.7 23.1 24.3 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 28.7 28.6 26.2 -2.4 23.4 24.0 28.7 30.4 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 22.0 22.1 22.8 -2.4 25.5 26.6 22.5 23.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 26.0 25.8 27.3 -3.2 17.0 19.4 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------