***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 15.4 15.3 18.1 -1.3 20.0 23.9 15.5 15.9 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 14.7 14.7 17.9 -1.2 18.8 23.3 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 17.1 16.7 18.4 -1.3 17.7 22.5 17.7 18.0 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 12.8 13.1 16.0 -0.8 29.4 31.0 13.1 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 13.5 13.1 16.0 -1.2 17.1 22.7 14.0 14.5 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 12.8 12.9 14.1 -0.7 26.7 30.1 12.9 13.2 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 15.2 15.0 18.1 -1.1 23.1 26.6 15.6 16.2 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 8.5 8.3 13.7 -1.1 15.7 22.6 8.8 9.1 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 14.6 14.2 16.0 -1.1 14.7 21.8 15.3 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 14.6 14.3 14.5 -1.0 15.7 23.2 15.3 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 14.2 13.6 15.6 -1.3 11.1 19.1 14.7 15.3 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 12.6 12.3 14.7 -1.2 12.5 20.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 13.5 13.0 14.1 -1.2 8.8 17.4 14.1 14.5 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 15.4 15.2 16.0 -0.9 20.4 26.0 15.7 16.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 15.9 16.2 17.9 -0.9 27.7 30.2 16.3 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 15.2 14.5 15.1 -1.2 11.9 20.4 15.6 16.0 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 15.8 15.6 17.8 -1.1 21.2 26.1 16.1 16.6 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 13.1 12.8 13.7 -0.9 17.3 25.2 13.1 14.0 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 15.1 14.9 18.0 -1.3 18.8 22.9 15.4 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 9.0 8.6 11.7 -0.8 19.4 26.0 9.5 10.0 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 14.7 14.4 17.3 -1.2 16.0 22.2 15.1 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 14.7 14.6 18.0 -0.9 26.7 30.0 15.0 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 14.8 14.7 18.1 -1.2 20.1 24.4 14.9 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 15.1 14.7 15.9 -1.0 17.6 24.1 15.6 16.2 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 14.8 14.3 16.8 -1.2 18.6 24.4 14.8 15.8 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 13.8 13.6 13.8 -1.0 15.6 22.7 14.3 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 14.7 14.3 17.4 -1.2 20.5 24.6 15.3 15.9 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 13.7 14.0 16.5 -0.8 27.9 30.1 14.0 14.4 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 12.5 12.4 13.1 -0.9 17.6 25.2 12.9 13.1 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 15.4 15.0 18.2 -1.3 18.5 23.0 15.6 16.2 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------