***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 14.7 15.6 18.7 -0.5 40.7 43.3 15.3 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.2 18.5 -0.4 43.2 44.8 15.0 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 17.2 17.8 19.1 -0.4 42.4 43.9 17.2 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.2 16.6 -0.1 49.4 48.0 12.9 13.2 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 13.3 13.5 16.2 -0.5 39.9 41.5 13.4 14.3 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 12.7 13.5 14.5 -0.3 44.7 45.0 13.1 13.6 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.6 18.8 -0.2 46.2 47.0 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 8.2 8.6 14.3 -0.4 40.7 43.1 8.4 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 14.3 15.3 16.2 -0.5 38.9 41.4 15.1 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 14.6 15.2 14.9 -0.3 42.9 43.7 14.9 15.4 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 13.9 14.6 15.9 -0.6 38.1 40.8 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 12.3 12.8 15.0 -0.6 38.2 41.0 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 13.3 13.7 13.9 -0.6 38.8 39.2 13.4 14.6 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.0 16.3 -0.2 44.7 46.2 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.1 18.2 0.0 48.5 49.4 15.9 16.2 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 15.1 15.5 15.1 -0.5 40.7 41.5 15.1 16.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.2 18.4 -0.2 46.3 47.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.4 13.4 13.9 -0.2 47.7 46.1 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 15.0 15.6 18.6 -0.4 41.8 44.6 15.4 16.0 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.9 9.7 11.7 -0.1 46.5 46.4 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 14.4 15.0 17.7 -0.5 39.4 41.5 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.1 18.5 0.0 48.9 49.3 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.6 14.8 18.6 -0.3 41.1 45.2 14.6 15.4 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.6 16.1 -0.3 45.6 45.0 15.3 15.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 14.5 14.8 17.2 -0.5 40.6 42.1 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 13.8 14.4 14.0 -0.5 41.0 40.7 14.0 14.9 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 14.6 15.1 17.9 -0.5 40.8 43.2 14.9 15.3 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.3 17.0 -0.1 49.0 49.0 13.0 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.3 13.0 13.4 -0.2 47.5 46.6 12.4 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 15.0 15.8 18.8 -0.4 42.7 44.4 15.4 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------