***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 15.4 15.6 18.7 -0.8 33.1 37.5 15.6 16.3 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 15.1 15.5 18.7 -0.6 37.7 40.1 15.1 16.3 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 17.0 17.2 19.2 -0.7 35.0 39.1 17.1 18.3 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 12.4 12.9 16.6 -0.6 36.0 40.1 12.9 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 13.5 13.6 16.3 -1.0 28.4 34.8 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 12.7 13.2 14.6 -0.7 32.0 38.2 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 15.6 16.0 19.0 -0.4 40.9 42.5 15.3 16.7 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 8.4 8.2 14.4 -0.9 27.6 35.6 8.4 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 14.8 15.4 16.3 -0.9 28.8 36.3 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 14.6 15.1 15.0 -0.8 29.3 37.2 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 14.3 14.5 16.0 -1.0 26.1 33.4 14.8 15.3 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 12.4 12.5 15.2 -1.0 25.2 33.2 13.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 13.5 13.8 14.1 -1.1 26.7 32.2 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 14.9 16.1 16.6 -0.5 33.9 41.9 16.1 17.0 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 15.9 16.4 18.2 -0.5 39.2 41.8 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 15.0 15.4 15.2 -1.0 27.5 34.1 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 15.8 16.6 18.6 -0.5 42.0 42.8 15.8 17.0 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 13.1 13.5 14.1 -0.6 32.9 39.7 13.5 14.7 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 15.0 15.8 18.8 -0.7 35.9 39.5 15.7 16.6 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 9.3 9.3 11.9 -0.6 32.0 39.2 9.3 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 14.7 15.2 17.8 -0.8 31.7 37.3 15.3 16.0 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.7 15.9 18.7 -0.3 43.7 44.5 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 14.4 15.1 18.8 -0.6 34.9 40.4 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 15.0 16.1 16.4 -0.6 33.9 40.2 16.0 16.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 14.7 15.3 17.2 -0.8 32.7 37.0 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 13.8 14.2 14.2 -1.0 28.2 34.1 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 14.9 15.2 17.9 -0.8 33.1 37.8 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 13.5 14.5 17.1 -0.5 38.2 41.7 14.4 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 12.0 12.4 13.6 -0.6 31.5 38.9 12.5 13.6 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 15.3 15.9 19.0 -0.7 37.0 39.7 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------