***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 14.6 14.8 18.2 -1.2 29.5 31.9 14.8 15.2 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 14.5 14.7 18.0 -1.2 29.6 31.6 15.0 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 16.5 16.5 18.4 -1.3 27.4 30.2 16.9 17.5 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 11.9 12.4 16.1 -0.9 30.4 34.5 12.5 13.4 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 13.0 13.0 16.2 -1.2 27.2 31.3 13.7 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 12.4 12.8 14.2 -0.7 33.6 37.5 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 15.2 15.3 18.3 -1.1 32.5 34.3 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.9 7.7 13.8 -1.1 27.3 30.8 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 14.4 14.7 16.3 -1.1 29.5 31.1 14.9 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 14.5 14.7 14.6 -1.1 28.5 31.6 15.1 15.7 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 13.9 14.0 15.8 -1.4 22.4 27.1 14.7 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 12.6 12.1 14.9 -1.2 26.2 30.1 12.6 13.6 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 13.1 13.0 14.6 -1.3 20.8 27.5 14.1 14.6 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 15.2 15.4 16.1 -1.0 31.3 32.6 15.4 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 15.7 15.8 18.0 -1.1 27.6 31.0 16.1 17.5 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 14.7 14.6 15.4 -1.2 23.5 29.1 15.3 16.0 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.5 16.0 17.9 -1.1 33.5 33.9 16.0 16.4 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 12.9 13.4 13.8 -1.0 30.8 32.6 13.5 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 15.0 14.6 18.0 -1.3 27.7 30.2 14.7 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.8 9.2 11.9 -0.9 31.2 33.3 9.5 10.4 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 14.4 14.8 17.5 -1.2 30.1 31.0 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 14.6 14.4 18.1 -1.0 31.8 34.3 14.4 15.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 14.3 14.5 18.1 -1.3 29.0 30.7 14.5 15.1 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 15.2 15.4 16.0 -1.0 30.0 31.8 15.5 16.1 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 14.3 14.4 17.1 -1.2 29.4 32.4 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 13.7 13.9 14.1 -1.0 28.1 33.8 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 13.9 14.0 17.6 -1.1 30.4 33.1 14.1 15.3 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 13.4 14.0 16.6 -1.0 29.4 33.3 14.4 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 11.8 12.2 13.2 -1.0 28.6 31.6 12.4 13.3 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 14.7 14.7 18.2 -1.3 28.6 31.0 15.1 15.7 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------